July 18, 2008
PitchFX On Eric Hurley: Pitch Location And Results
Eric Hurley allowed homers at a 4.4% rate in 75 AAA innings, nearly double the league average. In four MLB starts, his homer rate is 3.2%, better but still sub-par. The book on Hurley is his tendency to work high in the zone (or his inability to work low, if you prefer) results in too many fly balls, hence too many homers and other hard-hit balls.
With PitchFX, we can examine the relationship between his pitch location and opponents’ success at the plate. In this case, I’m focusing solely on balls hit into play (including homers), of which there are 75. One was a bunt single, and two have no pitch data, leaving 72 balls for study.
Caveat: Hurley hasn’t pitched enough to generate respectable sample sizes. I’m doing this exercise because I think it’s interesting, but how he’s performed so far doesn’t necessarily portend his future.
The split between high and low pitches is exactly 36:36. As shown in the graph, a few hitters have hit a ball into play on a pitch higher than the top of the strike zone, while no hitter has done so on a pitch below the bottom of the zone.
1. What type of pitch is crossing the plate high or low?
As expected, most of the high pitches are fastballs, and the low pitches contain a heavier proportion of sliders.
| Pitch Height | FA | SL | CH |
| < 2.6' | 50% | 39% | 9% |
| > 2.6' | 69% | 19% | 11% |
2. Are high pitches resulting in more fly balls?
Yes. The vertical midrange of the strike zone of hitters faced by Hurley is 2.52 feet. At 2.60 feet is a pretty strong delineation in fly ball tendency:
| Pitch Height | Grounder | Line Drive | OF Fly | IF Fly |
| < 2.6' | 33% | 31% | 33% | 3% |
| > 2.6' | 11% | 14% | 64% | 11% |
The ratio for all pitches is 22% grounders, 22% line drives, 48% outfield flies, and 8% infield flies.
3. Are high pitches resulting in more hits?
More home runs, yes (two on high strikes, one low). More hits, no. Opponents are batting a meager .194 when making contact on high strikes and a robust .389 on low strikes. The corresponding slugging percentages are .389 and .667.
What’s hurting Hurley most so far is a 31% line drive rate on low pitches. Opponents are batting .727 and slugging 1.000 on those liners, which sounds absurdly high but is actually near the average for the league.
Conversely, opponents are also hitting only .130 (3-for-23) on fly balls on high pitches. He’s also generated four infield flies (nearly as surely an out as a strikeout) on high pitches, only one on a low pitch.
So, Hurley should ditch the slider and concentrate on heat up in the zone where it’s safe.
Just kidding. Hurley can’t expect to turn 87% of high-strike flies into outs in the long run. Several pitchers (for example, Scott Kazmir, Rich Harden, Scott Baker, Jered Weaver) are succeeding with very low ground ball rates, but they also have extremely high strikeout rates (Kazmir, Harden) or are no worse than above-average both in walks and Ks (Baker, Weaver).
At present, Hurley has a respectable walk rate (7.4%) but a below-average strikeout rate (12.6%), and 70% of his balls in play have been liners or outfield flies. Despite his 3.57 ERA, that’s a pretty toxic brew. He’ll need some combination of more strikeouts and more grounders to succeed in the long run.
Posted by Lucas at 05:42 PM
Oklahoma vs. Round Rock, 13-14 July 2008
Brian Gordon
Continue reading "Oklahoma vs. Round Rock, 13-14 July 2008"
Posted by Lucas at 04:35 PM
July 14, 2008
Some Quick Research on C.J. Wilson
33 MLB relievers have received at least 10 save opportunities in 2008. Here's how C.J. Wilson ranks in various categories:
| Category | Rank | |
| Average | .258 | 25 |
| On-Base Percentage | .348 | 25 |
| Slugging Percentage | .422 | 26 |
| WHIP | 1.57 | 27 |
| HR % | 0.8% | 24 |
| BB+HBP % | 12.3% | 24 |
| SO % | 19.3% | 22 |
| Pitches / Batter | 4.1 | 22 |
| Pitches / Inning | 18.7 | 29 |
How Wilson ranks when facing his first batter:
| Category | Rank | |
| Average | .293 | 24 |
| On-Base Percentage | .341 | 22 |
| Slugging Percentage | .537 | 31 |
Based on a comparison of Wilson's peripheral stats to the other 32 relievers, the following closers are having seasons most similar to Wilson in 2008 (from most to least simlar):
J. Isringhausen
R. Franklin
B. Wilson
G. Sherrill
J. Valverde
M. Corpas
B. Ryan
S. Torres
And the least similar relievers:
M. Rivera
J. Soria
B. Morrow
J. Papelbon
B. Wagner
J. Nathan
B. Lidge
B. Jenks
Regarding Wilson’s personality: His flamboyance and occasional indifference to PR protocols will always make him an outsized target of affection when he’s performing well. Conversely, when he’s faltering, his comments/hair/hobbies/etc. will face extreme ridicule. This can be expressed algebraically as follows:
P = Performance [range of 0-10, 5 = average]
WL = Wilson Love [infinitely positive or negative, measured in picocuries]
WL = ( P – 5 ) x Modifier,
where Modifier > 1
I have yet to define this modifier numerically. It might be exponential rather than multiplicative.
Posted by Lucas at 06:01 PM
July 13, 2008
Oklahoma vs. Round Rock, 12 July 2008
Tommy Hunter
Continue reading "Oklahoma vs. Round Rock, 12 July 2008"
Posted by Lucas at 12:05 PM
July 12, 2008
Oklahoma vs. Round Rock, 11 July 2008
Nelson Cruz (and Edwin Maysonet)
Continue reading "Oklahoma vs. Round Rock, 11 July 2008"
Posted by Lucas at 01:41 PM
June 29, 2008
Clarifications
If you are bringing up a Chris Davis... shouldn’t it be as an everyday player? Does that make sense, even if holding them out at times against certain pitchers is also acceptable? But if there is a thought, or if the minor league stats show Davis might struggle a tad with lefties, then keep him in OKC to face those lefties, and not have him sit for those up here. Any doubt that creeps into Davis’ mind that he might not be trusted against lefties is a doubt that absolutely should not be there at this stage of a career.”Chris Davis’s career splits:
| - | vs. Left | vs. Right |
| Average | .315 | .299 |
| On-Base | .376 | .349 |
| Slugging | .573 | .602 |
| HR / PA | 5.1% | 6.9% |
| BB / PA | 7.3% | 7.3% |
| SO / PA | 24.1% | 25.4% |
Chris Davis’s splits in 2008:
| - | vs. Left | vs. Right |
| Average | .293 | .343 |
| On-Base | .333 | .398 |
| Slugging | .552 | .665 |
| HR / PA | 6.3% | 7.1% |
| BB / PA | 4.8% | 8.6% |
| SO / PA | 27.0% | 21.1% |
Davis's BB/SO ratio has broken down against lefties this season. The rest is peachy. If Davis is having self-esteem issues versus lefties, he's hiding them well.
Idle thought: Under this philosophy, would Hank Blalock (lifetime .224/.279/.345 versus lefties) ever have become a Major Leaguer?
“Why is [Brandon Boggs] up here, playing maybe twice a week, when the kid shows definite potential? Boggs has been an asset for the Rangers when he has played, but is he benefiting in the long run from all the sitting?”
Boggs has never appeared in fewer than three games in any seven-day period:
Posted by Lucas at 05:52 PM
June 26, 2008
Chris Davis Has Bigger Arms Than You
Frisco, Texas, 16 May 2008
Posted by Lucas at 06:19 PM
