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The Ranger Rundown by Scott Lucas |
Rangers Sign Four, Serve Youth, Seek Health in 2003
During the last three weeks of 2002, the Rangers signed three relievers and an outfielder to one-year deals. Clearly, the Rangers are biding their time until 2004 when several large contracts will disappear , thereby releasing money for more serious and long-term free-agent acquisitions. 2003 is a year for developing several promising youngsters and trying to avoid the injuries that capsized the Rangers boat right out of the dock. Other than Ugueth Urbina, the newcomers have minimal fantasy implications.
Ugueth Urtain Urbina
The Rangers signed UGUETH URBINA to a one-year deal on December 22. As a result, FRANCISCO CORDERO moves into a setup role despite posting a 1.79 ERA and saving 10 games in 12 opportunities. Ugie undoubtedly improves a weak Ranger bullpen, but from a fantasy perspective he loses some value moving from Boston to Texas. The Rangers simply aren’t as good as the Red Sox, so Urbina shouldn’t get as many save opportunities, though a good closer will notch 30-35 saves even for an inferior team.
Although his rate of home runs allowed isn’t outrageously high, Urbina is an extreme flyball pitcher. He also struggles against left-handed hitters, who batted.267/.344/.478 against him from 2000-2002 compared to .173/.226/.288 for righties. Urbina’s previous home parks were Fenway and Stade Olympique, both of which rank among the toughest parks for left-handed power hitters. Conversely, every day is Christmas for lefties hitting in the Ballpark in Arlington, so some of his warning-track outs in Fenway could become souvenirs in Arlington. Also, if the Rangers are dead ducks by summer (for the fourth consecutive year, a distinct possibility), Urbina will be trade bait.
Douglas Metunwa Glanville
Like Urbina, DOUG GLANVILLE signed a one-year contract with the Rangers in mid-December. Ostensibly, Glanville is the Rangers’ fourth outfielder, but the injury-prone Carl Everett and Juan Gonzalez could thrust him into a much more prominent role. The Rangers will suffer if he leads off at all or tallies more than 300 plate appearances. With a career batting average of .281, Glanville emanates the illusion of competence, yet his career on-base percentage is only eleven points higher than that of oft-maligned Ruben Rivera. Though he has slumped in recent years, residency in the Ballpark will permit Glanville to hit .270-.290. In his favor, he is arguably the smartest player in baseball and usually is good for an interesting quote.
Esteban Luis Yan and Richard Aaron Fultz
The one-year deals continue with the signing of Tampa Bay’s “closer” from 2002, ESTEBAN YAN, and San Francisco’s AARON FULTZ. Yan is a respectable performer, but like Urbina, he is prone to the home run and has trouble against lefthanded hitters. He also is wildly inconsistent from month to month. Yan won’t close any games for Texas; he will pitch in middle relief and perhaps to set up Urbina.. Fultz has a career ERA of 4.66 despite spending half of his time in an extreme pitcher’s park. He averaged less than one inning per appearance for SF and probably will do the same for Texas as a lefty specialist. Yan and Fultz are non-entities except in insanely deep AL-only fantasy leagues.
Missing: Little Cat
Free agent FRANK CATALANOTTO signed a one-year deal with Toronto. The Rangers non-tendered the arbitration-eligible Little Cat rather than risk having to pay $3 million to a player without a permanent position. Cat’s departure eliminates any competition MICHAEL YOUNG may have had for the starting second baseman’s job. His departure also eliminates the only obvious candidate for leadoff hitter. How familiar are you with MIKE LAMB? Other than A-Rod and Palmeiro, his 2002 on-base percentage of .354 leads all returning Ranger. Lamb, HERBERT PERRY, KEVIN MENCH, and the OBP-impaired Young and Glanville will vie for the leadoff spot barring additional signings or trades.
Needed: Starting Pitchers
The starting rotation presently consists of CHAN HO PARK and four big question marks. JOAQUIN BENOIT and COLBY LEWIS should make the rotation unless they collapse in Spring Training, and DOUG DAVIS, MARIO RAMOS and RYAN DRESE will have an opportunity to wow the Ranger brass. Rather than mimic the days of old with a three-man rotation, Texas will sign one or two free agent starters in the upcoming weeks.
Rangers Add Two To Rotation
Texas has bolstered its rotation with free-agents signings ISMAEL VALDES and JOHN THOMSON. They probably represent the last significant free agents the Rangers will sign this offseason, though additional trades are always a possibility (but not on the level of Hafner-for-Diaz, I hope). A roster that was in disarray as of late November now appears set except for the back of the rotation and bench.
Valdes returns to Texas
Texas wisely re-signed Valdes for the 2003 season. Except for some recurring blisters problems, he was relatively injury-free for the first time in three years and responded with his lowest-ever ERA outside of Dodger Stadium. His makeup seems ill-suited to The Ballpark – low strikeout rate, low groundball rate, medium-high homer rate – but he is stingy with the walks finds a way to get batters out. His ERA as a Ranger was 3.93, a figure he likely will not repeat. He allows too many balls to be put into the field of play to hold batters to a .242 average in the Hitter’s Paradise known as The Ballpark. An ERA of 4.25-4.50 is more likely than another sub-4.00 performance. Nevertheless, as a fantasy player he has some value in the back end of a rotation in mixed leagues.
John Thomson (not Thompson)
Like Valdes, John Thomson doesn’t fan many batters (5.6 per 9 IP). His WHIP is merely adequate, and he has only 29 career wins and a 4.95 ERA. He is a better pitcher than those statistics suggest, as he has spent most of his tenure in Colorado and thrown roughly 45% of his pitches at Planet Coors. Thomson has a more modest 4.41 ERA on the road. That said, he still isn’t worth much in fantasy baseball. I’d expect an ERA in the 4.50-4.90 range, a 1.35 WHIP and about 120 strikeouts. He’ll have some value in AL-only leagues but is very marginal in mixed leagues. Last year Thomson was healthy for the first time since 1998. He had shoulder surgery in 1999, missed all of 2000, and pitched sporadically in 2001.
Chad Kreuter Returns
The Rangers also signed catcher CHAD KREUTER to a one-year minor-league deal. He will challenge TODD GREENE for the role of EINAR DIAZ’s caddy, though it’s not inconceivable that all three could make the team. Kreuter has no value as a fantasy player but reportedly was of great value in Los Angeles as CHAN HO PARK’s personal catcher, allegedly keeping him focused and aggressive on the mound. At 38, he can still hit .250, draw a walk and hit the occasional dinger. I can’t say definitively that he will help Park, but he certainly won’t hurt. It’s a development worth watching. A low-key but quality signing by the Rangers.
Heal Thyself
The Rangers clearly lacked the talent of their division rivals in 2002, but they could have offered stiffer competition if not for several debilitating injuries. Catalanotto, Everett, Kapler, Greer and Gonzalez – expected to share the outfield and DH spot – averaged only 62 starts each. Kevin Mench, who was not on the roster when the season began, led the team in outfield starts last year. Jeff Zimmerman never threw a meaningful pitch. Park fought a hamstring injury most of the season. Ivan Rodriguez missed yet another 50-game stretch.
What of the returning players’ health in 2003? Reportedly, Gonzalez’s thumb is “no longer an issue” according to GM John Hart. Park and Everett are healthy. Zimmerman, as you may know, is not expected to pitch before the All-Star break. Ignore him in upcoming drafts unless you have a ridiculously deep bench. Greer is out for the season and probably played the last game of his career the previous June.
Will Gonzalez perform as he did in 2001 when he was playing for his next contract? Was Everett’s line of .327/.405/.524 after the All-Star break a return to greatness or a three-month fluke? Can Park maintain his post-June 4.28 ERA despite a 1.57 WHIP? I will attempt to answer these questions in the upcoming weeks.
Pudge Sleeps With The Fishes
The Rangers were kind enough not to sign or trade anyone during my ski trip last week. The week was not without a surprise, however, as lifetime Ranger IVAN RODRIGUEZ signed a one-year deal with the Florida Marlins, a destination that perhaps no one foresaw (certainly not Pudge or his agent). Pudge will earn $10 million this season, though deferrals push the present value down to approximately $9 million depending on your preferred discount rate. Also, the Marlins generously bestowed a no-trade clause and cannot offer him arbitration, meaning they won’t even receive a compensatory draft pick upon his imminent departure.
Pudge migrates from the second-most favorable American League park for hitters to one of the five toughest National League parks. Furthermore, Pudge often DH’ed on his “days off,” an option unavailable in Florida. My early computer model indicated a .312 average with 69 runs, 22 homers, 65 RBI and seven steals in 450 plate appearances as a Ranger. In Florida, those numbers decline to .294-60-18-57-7 (though he might steal a few more bases for Jeff “That 70s Show” Torborg). While my computer model considers aging and park factors it does not (yet) consider quality of teammates. What of the players batting around him?
In effect, the Marlins traded Preston Wilson and Kevin Millar for Juan Pierre and Todd Hollandsworth, two players who barely tread water away from Coors Field. At elevations closer to sea level, Hollandworth has a career line of .265/.321/.408 and Juan Pierre a line of 283/.330/.351. Meanwhile, the departed Preston Wilson hit .262/.333/.473 as a Fish and Kevin Millar batted an impressive .296/.367/.504. In 2002 the Marlins had a respectable OBP of .337 but were 12th in scoring because of their lack of power, making their cavalier dismissal of Millar all the more stupefying. That is, it would be stupefying if you hadn’t already ascertained the incompetence of Loria and Company.
The Rangers had enough offensive talent to place Pudge most frequently in the #5-spot. In Florida, he will bat third behind Luis Castillo and Juan Pierre. Castillo is a better leadoff hitter than anyone the Rangers will have in 2003, but I expect Pierre to flounder as a Marlin (sorry). Pierre reminds me of a younger Doug Glanville with slightly more patience and less power. Behind Pudge should be Mike Lowell and Derrek Lee, who are capable hitters but not spectacular. Filling out the lineup are the overrated Juan Encarnacion (a .268/.311/.440 batter excepting his half-season of quality in Cincinnati), the aforementioned Hollandsworth, offense-impaired Alex Gonzalez, and the pitcher’s slot. Not exactly Murderer’s Row. On the whole, Pudge will receive far less assistance from his Marlin brethren.
As pointed out in ESPN’s Wake-Up Call, Rodriguez is no longer a first or second-round pick. Even in NL-only leagues, his expected performance doesn’t merit a premium pick. However, don’t ignore him. If Rodriguez does hit in the range of .294-60-18-57 he will still be a top-five fantasy catcher. As I’ve noted previously, an intermittently healthy Pudge plus two-to-three months of a waiver-wire pickup are more valuable than a full season from most healthy, full-time catchers. His projected value depends greatly on your level of risk-aversion. Those who are loathe to draft the injury-prone should wait for second-tier catchers like Lieberthal, Lo Duca and Kendall. Those who don’t mind gambling could be paid off handsomely, but don’t expect him to resume his late-1990’s brilliance.
FootnotesFinally!
"Spring Training." For baseball fans feigning interest in hoops and pucks during this cold, grim February, the words "Spring Training" are a gift from heaven. SportsCenter will show videotape of Ichiro jogging and Roger Clemens playing catch. Fans will eat it up. So will I. As for the Texas Rangers, their pitchers and catchers will hold initial workouts in Surprise, Arizona, on Thursday the 13th, and full-team workouts begin on Tuesday the 18th. The Cactus League commences on the 27th with split-squad games against Kansas City and the University of Texas, the alma mater I share with team owner Tom Hicks (and doubtlessly the only thing we have in common).
"The First Wealth Is Health"
With no games scheduled early on, fantasy owners should focus mostly on players' health issues. In particular, the health of CARL EVERETT and JUAN GONZALEZ will substantially impact other starting jobs and the bench. Everett has averaged only 120 games per season during the past seven years and has never played more than 142 in any season. More important than his general fragility is whether he'll satisfy the Rangers' need for a quality defensive centerfielder. If not, hacktastic DOUG GLANVILLE will inherit the job and Everett would move into an already crowded DH/corner outfielder situation. Currently, KEVIN MENCH is lightly pencilled in as the starting leftfielder, but a slow start combined with a too-weak-for-CF Everett could condemn him to AAA.
Everett at least finished the season strong, whereas Gonzalez missed the final two months. Last year, Gonzalez's hand injury didn’t affect his ability to play in the field or obliterate his batting average (he hit .282, .014 below his career average). But, unable to drive the ball, he belted all of eight homers and slugged .451, 117 points below his career percentage. Over the winter, Gonzalez eschewed surgery for lengthy rest, and the Rangers claim he is healed. A healthy Gonzalez is a four-category stud, an ailing one isn't worth drafting. If he reaggravates the injury, Mench’s standing would improve and more DH at-bats would be available to HERBERT PERRY, MIKE LAMB and even MARK TEIXEIRA if he has a breakout spring and/or fast start in AAA.
"Lies, Darned Lies and Statistics"
Spring Training statistics means everything to players trying to win roster spots and starting assignments, but fantasy owners must resist the temptation to extrapolate spring stats into regular season performance. Owners who base draft-day decisions on the statistics of 25-30 prospect and scrub-filled exhibition games won’t win their leagues. Last spring, Carl Everett showed up to camp overweight and still limping from offseason knee surgery but batted .387 and slugged .839 in ten exhibition games leading into the regular season. His brief display of excellence was fraudulent, as by the All-Star break he’d spent several weeks on the disabled list and was batting .193 with six homers and twenty RBI.
With rookies, the temptation to rely on Spring Training stats is even greater because of the lack of other data. Witness HANK BLALOCK, who hit .333 and slugged .552 last spring and deservedly won the third baseman job despite having no experience above AA. As Spring Training progressed, Blalock's perceived value skyrocketed among fantasy owners. In my league which drafted in late March he was selected 57th overall. An abysmal start banished him to AAA by mid-May and he washed out as a fantasy player. I'm not suggesting owners should have known he would fail. Whether or not he had ended up playing well in 2002, the point is that his success in Spring Training was useless as a predictor of regular season performance.
Aside from Albert Pujols and mature Japanese imports like Ichiro, rookies very rarely make good fantasy players. Too many owners perceive rookies in terms of career potential rather than immediate payoff, when in fact there is no "career" or "potential" in non-keeper leagues. There is only this year, only now. Should Mark Teixeira imitate Blalock and force his way onto the 25-man roster this spring, don't find yourself mopping up your drool while ogling his preseason stats. He could perform capably this season, but the odds of him being a premier fantasy player are extremely small. Remember that many scouts have compared Blalock to George Brett, but even Brett accrued only 49 runs, eight homers and 47 RBI in his first full season.
EndnotesSix Days, Zero Injuries
The excitement of watching premier athletes players stretch and jog wears off fast, doesn't it? The initial thrill of Spring Training always dissolves into the unfortunate reality that for the first two weeks or so, almost nothing interesting happens. In a sense, no news is good news, as newsworthy events this early in camp usually involve injuries. Ranger hitters reported to camp Monday and the team will hold its first full-squad workout Tuesday. Later this week, I'll begin lengthy assessments of the Rangers' lineup. For now, another general interest column.
A Man To Watch
ESPN rates CARL EVERETT as just the 80th-best outfielder in mixed leagues, and who can blame them. Everett has averaged only 120 games and 493 plate appearances per season during the last seven years, and he was as useful as lint for three months last year. However, hit very well after last year's All-Star break (.929 OPS), and he's heather than he's been in almost two years. Right now, I'm predicting a .270 average, 65-70 runs, 75-80 RBI, and 25 homers; nothing drool-worthy, but worth a late-round pick in mixed leagues and a middle-round pick in AL-only leagues. I would choose Everett in a heartbeat over higher-ranked OFs like Terrence Long, Chris Singleton, Rob Mackowiak, Eric Owens, and Timo Perez. If you're not too risk-averse, move him up your cheat sheet.
Trading Spaces
As recently reported by Peter Gammons, MARK TEIXEIRA will be practicing at first base. His comments could be interpreted to mean that Teixeira is replacing RAFAEL PALMEIRO, but I don’t believe Palmeiro is going anywhere this season, though he may DH more often. If both Teixeira and HANK BLALOCK earn spots on the 25-man roster, one will have to move, so the Rangers are simply trying to gain flexibility. Likewise, Blalock will practice at second base, both to provide depth up the middle and possibly to supplant MICHAEL YOUNG should Young fail to progress as a hitter. For the moment, Teixeira rates no better than a risky late-round pick in mixed leagues because he may not see Arlington before mid-summer. Remember than long-term potential means nothing in single-year leagues.
Scouting the Pitchers
For mixed leagues, UGUETH URBINA is the only must-have pitcher on the Ranger roster. CHAN HO PARK and ISMAEL VALDES have value, but given their checkered pasts and current home field, I wouldn't blame you for ignoring them on draft day. While Park had six wins and a passable 4.28 ERA in the second half of last season, his WHIP was a lofty 1.57, barely lower than his WHIP of 1.62 in the first-half when he posted an 8.10 ERA. His peripheral stats indicate he was unlucky in the season's first half but lucky in the second half. Park will approach 200 strikeouts and has a huge upside. On the other hand, 2002 proved he also has a huge downside, and predicting his 2003 performance with reasonable accuracy is very difficult. In the near future, I will try to do so.
Valdes should pitch effectively for Texas again in 2003, but "effective pitcher" and "effective fantasy pitcher" are two different terms. His peripheral stats are uninspiring, and I don’t believe he'll replicate the 3.93 ERA he posted as a Ranger last year. In 2002, his strikeout rate fell to a career-worst 4.7 per nine innings. He also was slightly lucky in terms of balls put in play (meaning the exclusion of homers and strikeouts), allowing opponents a .269 average on balls put in play compared to his career average of .288. Should he revert to his more typical performance in 2003, an ERA of 4.25-4.50 is most likely. Also, he is prone to blisters and other minor maladies that may decrease his effectiveness or his number of starts.
Thom(p)son Twins
In a recent New York Times piece on new skipper Buck Showalter, author Jack Curry stated that JUSTIN THOMPSON was one of the Rangers' starting pitchers. Thompson does pitch for the Rangers, but their #3 starter is JOHN THOMSON, who pitched for the Rox and Mets last year. Justin Thompson is the former phenom acquired from Detroit in 1999. Thanks to perpetual shoulder problems, Thompson hasn't pitched in a Major League game in four years. He appears healthier now than ever and might yet return to the Majors, but obviously he's not worth owning on a fantasy squad. Except in AL-only leagues, neither is John Thomson. Still, be careful not to confuse them.
Analyzing RAFAEL PALMEIRO
2003 PROJECTIONS: Positions: 1B, DH. Spot in Batting Order: #4 or #5. Plate Appearances: 650. Batting Average: .265. Runs: 92. Homers: 40. RBI: 103. Steals: 1. On-base Percentage: .380. Slugging Percentage: .550. Upside: Low – counting stats will improve if he reaches 700 PAs and his fellow sluggers are healthier. Downside: Low-to-moderate – Not prone to injury and has shown very little evidence of decline, but he IS 38 years old. Overall risk: Low.
Rafael Palmeiro is consistent to the point of absurdity. For the last eight years, Palmeiro has belted 38-47 homers, driven in 104-142 runs, and scored 89-110 runs. Among first basemen, Palmeiro offers excellent production in three categories and is slightly below the norm in batting average. Once a player who could steal bases when necessary, Palmeiro is now very slow. He has also evolved into one of the most extreme flyball hitters in baseball. Thus, he doesn’t hit onto many double plays and renders moot the “Ted Williams” shift that many defenses employ against him. He compensates for his modest batting average with tremendous patience, walking a best-ever one of every 6.4 plate appearances in 2002.
The 38-year-old Palmeiro has never visited the disabled list, though he should have last May when a hamstring pull rendered him barely able to run. He missed six games while enduring a 29-game stretch in which he did not play in the field. By a slight margin, his 663 plate appearances were his lowest total (in a non-strike year) since 1990. Pride and stubbornness may have swayed the decision to keep him on the active roster, and the Rangers desperation for offense also was a factor (already disabled were Pudge Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Carl Everett and Frank Catalanotto). For several months last year, his baserunning was a grim spectacle. Though deeming him injury-prone would be a gross exaggeration, he is at an age when nagging injuries are more likely to affect his performance.
Another factor possibly indicating age-related decline is Palmeiro’s sudden inability to hit lefthanders. He naturally hits lefties slightly worse than righties, but in 2002 that tendency became more severe. A career .289/.352/.499 hitter against lefties going into the season, Palmeiro batted only .220/.315/.465 against them last year. This decline isn’t severe enough to merit downgrading him on draft day or benching him against lefties if you have the flexibility. But if nothing else, it is worth watching.
That said, if you assume he’ll repeat last year’s performance, odds are high that you’ll be correct.
I’m the cautious sort, so I project a slight decrease in plate appearances and production. Whether or not I am correct, Palmeiro still belongs in the second tier of fantasy 1Bs along with Paul Konerko, Richie Sexson and Ryan Klesko. His owners just need to pay a bit more attention to him this year.
Juan Makes An Appearance
JUAN GONZALEZ arrived in camp Thursday. He backed off earlier comments about expecting to be traded and expressed his happiness at wearing Ranger blue. He claimed to have a new, fresh outlook on life. Gonzalez desperately needs to adopt the Steve Carlton Silent Treatment, but more importantly, he insists he is fully recovered from last year’s thumb injury that crippled his ability to drive the ball. Hand injuries tend to linger (the assessment from Baseball Prospectus was alarmingly negative), so prospective owners should monitor news regarding his progress. At this early stage, I wouldn’t predict a “Cleveland 2001” season or a repeat of last year’s disaster. Somewhere in between is more likely, say .300-80-25-90. The upside and downside are extreme.
Analyzing CHAN HO PARK
2003 PROJECTIONS: Wins: 13. ERA: 4.50. WHIP: 1.42. SO: 185. Upside: Moderate – Averaged 15 wins, 3.82 ERA and 193 Ks from 1997-2001 (albeit in Dodger Stadium). Pitching coach Oscar Acosta is gone. Acclimated to team and surroundings. Downside: Moderate – Park cooks with gas but is walk-prone, homer-prone and pitches in the Ballpark. Will make 10-12 starts against Oakland, Seattle and Anaheim. Overall risk: Moderate.
Chan Ho Park was wretchedness incarnate in 2002. In March, the Rangers’ putative staff ace pulled a hamstring in his final exhibition start. He flopped in his first start as a Ranger, then missed the next six weeks and pitched no better upon his return. At the All-Star break, he had an ERA of 8.10, almost double the 4.15 ERA your embarrassed correspondent predicted. After the break, a healthier Park won six games, had nine quality starts in fourteen attempts, and posted a relatively respectable 4.28 ERA. In truth, Park didn’t pitch much better during the second half of the season despite cutting his ERA nearly in half. His WHIP scarcely improved, falling from 1.62 in the first half to just 1.57 in the second, and his K/BB ratio was 1.55 in both halves. In other words, he was lucky.
That said, Park should be better this year. Last year, now-deposed pitching coach Oscar Acosta forced Park to alter the Spring Training workout regimen he’d used for several years. Park tried to pitch through his hamstring injury, failed, and then returned too quickly. He also admitted feeling lost in the Ranger clubhouse (fluency in Korean only goes so far in Texas). Park is not injury-prone, and in 2003 he should exhibit some improvement simply on the basis of better health and renewal of his preferred conditioning program. Park could rank among the league’s best in strikeouts and should win a fair share of games. In terms of ERA and WHIP, Park ought not to destroy fantasy teams as he did last year, but neither will he offer much help.
I wouldn’t recommend drafting Park in mixed leagues unless you’re desperate for starters in the late rounds. He does have the potential to become a solid waiver-wire pickup, so keep an eye on him. In AL-only leagues, he’s an acceptable middle-round pick. One last item to keep in mind is that every Ranger pitcher is playing against a stacked deck known as The Ballpark In Arlington. Ken Hill and Kenny Rogers (twice) are the only starters to post a sub-4.00 ERA at the Ballpark. Yes, the quality of Ranger starters is an issue, but the Ballpark really does favor hitters quite strongly. Last year, Rangers and their opponents combined to score 11.8 runs per game in the Ballpark compared to 9.5 in other stadia.
Blalock Versus Teixeira
If the Rangers had to make a decision today, I believe they would start HANK BLALOCK at third but bench him against most lefties, use HERBERT PERRY as part-time DH and occasional starter at third and first, and send MARK TEIXEIRA to AAA. Obviously, a strong showing by Teixeira this spring will alter that scenario. Several readers have asked whether Blalock practicing at second means he will move there permanently and supplant Young. It’s a possibility, but one reason for having Blalock practice at second is that the Rangers have very little Major League-quality depth in the middle infield. Should ALEX RODRIGUEZ suffer an injury, Young will move to shortstop, and someone would have to take his place. Thus far, Blalock has started at 3B in both exhibition games against ML teams.
Who Sets The Table?
Frank Catalanotto’s departure left the Rangers without an obvious choice for leadoff hitter. Last year, no one could replace Cat during his injury-marred 2002 and the Rangers finished next-to-last in the AL in on-base percentage from the leadoff slot. Though MICHAEL YOUNG failed spectacularly as the #1 hitter (.263 OBP in 189 at-bats), the Rangers would love for him to reclaim the role. Other candidates include MIKE LAMB, DOUG GLANVILLE (who has a .295 OBP during the last three years), and JERMAINE CLARK (who had a .371 OBP in Triple-A last year). Showalter may decide to use a platoon system for the leadoff spot. Should a clear winner emerge, that player should score a few more runs.
Gonzalez Hurt. Film At Eleven.
You’ll never guess who arrived late to camp, practiced twice, experienced back spasms, and has since missed the last five days including the first two exhibition games of the Cactus League. The spasms reportedly are minor and the decision to keep him out of practice is “precautionary.” The answer: JUAN GONZALEZ. Get used to it. Manager Buck Showalter loathes using one player as a full-time designated hitter. He would prefer to spread the at-bats around to give starters occasional days of half-rest and to keep the bench fresh. A minor but lingering injury to Gonzalez could modify Showalter’s plans.
Analyzing ALEX RODRIGUEZ
2003 PROJECTIONS: Plate Appearances: 700. Batting Average: .310. Runs: 130. Homers: 54. RBI: 135. Steals: 10. On-base Percentage: .400. Slugging Percentage: .630. Upside: Moderate-to-high – he is only 27. Improved health among teammates could help. Downside: Low - hasn’t missed a single game in two years and has average 150 per season as a regular. Overall risk: Very low.
Writing from a fantasy perspective about the best player in baseball is not much of a challenge. Alex Rodriguez plays every game and hits the cover off the ball. What else is there to say? Well, with his already astonishing statistics, it’s astonishing to realize that Rodriguez has more upside than downside. Rodriguez is only 27 and in the prime of his career. As good as he’s been, it’s possible that his previous performances were merely an introduction. He has played in all 324 games and averaged 727 plate appearances per season as a Ranger, though I project 700 PAs on the conservative assumption that he’ll miss a small handful of games.
With A-Rod, only one question matters: Do you draft him with the first pick or instead choose Randy Johnson or Vlad Guerrero? Both graded out higher than A-Rod last year, Guerrero because of his 40 steals and higher average, Johnson because he’s inhuman. Choosing Vlad, you’ll gain 25-30 steals and 15-25 points in batting average but lose 25 runs, 25 RBI and 15 homers. You’ll also have an outfielder instead of a shortstop. Johnson is a four-category monster and he most probably will continue to dominate opposing hitters in 2003. But at 39, he is more likely to suffer an injury than Rodriguez and also more likely to decline. I believe that Rodriguez offers the most value for the least risk. Choose him and sleep peacefully.
Perry hurt. Will Youth Be Served?
HERBERT PERRY, penciled in as part-time 3B and DH, will not play for at least two-to-three weeks because of a sore shoulder and deep bone bruise on his knee. Though MRIs revealed no serious damage, Perry offered a gloomy assessment of his situation, saying “it’s going to be agony” and “I don’t think I’ll ever be 100% (this season).” He was never worth drafting in mixed leagues; for the moment he’s a dubious choice even in most AL-only leagues. Should Perry begin the season on the disabled list, MIKE LAMB and DOUG GLANVILLE could accrue more at-bats as DH. Long-shots RUBEN SIERRA and JERMAINE CLARK also would have a better chance of making the team.
More importantly, Perry’s injury invigorates the previously unlikely scenario of HANK BLALOCK and MARK TEIXEIRA both starting the season in Arlington. The Rangers want both to play every day, whether in Arlington or Oklahoma City. With Perry out, perhaps both could start in Arlington. Potentially, Blalock could play third against righties while Teixeira starts against lefties and spots at 1B and DH against righties. In the short term, both players will see more action in Spring Training games than they otherwise would have. In seven “A” games thus far, Blalock has started five games at 3B and is batting and slugging .286. Blalock also played an errorless one-half of a “B” game at second base. Teixeira is batting .312 and slugging .437 with two starts at third and one at first.
Glanville Makes His Case
4th outfielder DOUG GLANVILLE (impressive in exhibition games so far) may have a substantial supporting role, if not a leading one, in the Rangers’ outfield rotation. With JUAN GONZALEZ’s back spasms reminding us of his frailty, CARL EVERETT’s tenuous hold on centerfield, and a DH-by-committee, Glanville might eke out 450-500 plate appearances. From a team perspective, this is bad news. From a fantasy perspective, Glanville offers some value. If he does play semi-regularly, he should obtain 20 steals and bat respectably (say .270-.280). Nevertheless, in mixed leagues I’d suggest you find your steals elsewhere on draft day. He doesn’t reach base often enough to score a high number of runs and won’t tally many homers or RBI. He’s an adequate space-filler in AL-only leagues.
Endnotes
UGUETH URBINA, the only must-own Ranger pitcher in mixed leagues, trains on his own schedule and has yet to pitch. He’s not hurt. Among the many candidates for back of the rotation, COLBY LEWIS has distinguished himself by tossing five perfect innings over two appearances. Like JOAQUIN BENOIT (and RYAN DRESE if you’re feeling generous), Lewis has shown promise, but I don’t see him and his brethren evolving into quality fantasy pitchers this season.
Analyzing EINAR DIAZ
2003 PROJECTIONS -- Position: Catcher. Spot in Batting Order: #8 or #9. Plate Appearances: 450. Batting Average: .273. Runs: 53. Homers: 4. RBI: 49. Steals: 1. On-base Percentage: .325. Slugging Percentage: .380. Upside: Low – My projections are near his seasonal bests. Downside: Low-to-moderate – He is the #1 catcher but could be lifted frequently for pinch hitters. Overall risk: Low
The average fantasy owner will grimace disdainfully at Einar Diaz’s statistics from last season (.206-34-2-16) and erase Diaz from his draft list and his memory. I say, not so fast. I’m not suggesting Diaz is a good player, but he is better than last season would indicate. Though Diaz played in 102 games in 2002, his season effectively ended April 21st, when 215-pound Bobby Kielty tried to separate him from the ball at home plate. Diaz suffered a broken rib and could not swing the bat without pain. Afterwards, he batted .197 and drove in only 12 runs in his final 86 games. Another collision in August ended his season.
Prior to 2002, Diaz batted .274/.324/.378 and averaged 50 runs, 5 homers, 45 RBI and six steals per 450 plate appearances. As the frontline catcher in a hitter-friendly park, he should achieve similar numbers this season. Upside is minimal. Diaz is 30 years old, a dead-pull hitter despite having minimal power, and is also extremely impatient (one walk per 22.7 PAs). Diaz doesn’t face serious competition for his job; TODD GREENE (who can hit the long ball but offers little else) and 38-year-old CHAD KREUTER are fighting for the backup spot, and prospect GERALD LAIRD is at least one year away. On the other hand, the Rangers probably will pinch-hit for Diaz more than any other starter.
Diaz isn’t worth drafting in mixed leagues with fewer than sixteen teams unless the rosters are unusually large. If you’re catcher gets hurt during the season, Diaz is a tolerable replacement who could provide just enough average, runs and RBI to keep your team afloat. In AL-only leagues, where the catcher position is pitifully weak, Diaz is a bearable late-round pick. I’d much rather own Diaz than “slugger” Geronimo Gil, who batted .220-26-7-32 outside of a 17-game hot streak last season. In sum, you certainly don’t want to go out of your way to acquire Diaz, but you can live with him if you have to.
The Healthy Outfielder
KEVIN MENCH has started six of nine “A” games this spring and is hitting with authority. He shows no lingering effects from the hand injury that marred his rookie campaign. Though he might lose some at-bats if the Rangers decide Everett can’t handle center field, and a terrible start (by him and the Rangers) might condemn him to AAA, the most probable scenario has Mench as the everyday left fielder. Several writers expect Mench to break out this year. He certainly is capable of doing so, but I think modest improvement is more likely. That said, he still should bat .270, smack 20-25 homers and attain 90 RBI if he plays regularly. Meanwhile, JUAN GONZALEZ played and homered in his first “A” game on Thursday. His back spasms have abated, meaning he’ll mash the ball until his next injury.
More News From Third Base
MARK TEIXEIRA continues to impress, batting .333 and slugging .583 while splitting time between 1B and 3B. Thus far, skepticism of his defensive ability has proven to be unfounded. HANK BLALOCK has started more frequently at 3B and also has started two games at second, but he is batting only .211. With only a few games played, every at-bat is worth 40-50 points in average, so the 122 point difference between the two players isn’t what it appears. The Rangers have intimated absolutely nothing about who will make the squad and who will start other than expressing pleasure in Teixeira’s performance. I still consider Blalock to have the lead, but he needs to start hitting soon. HERBERT PERRY remains sidelined indefinitely with a sore shoulder and knee.
Analyzing JUAN GONZALEZ
2003 PROJECTIONS: Position: OF, DH. Slot in Batting Order: #4 or #5. Plate Appearances: 500. Batting Average: .305. Runs: 75. Homers: 25. RBI: 90. Steals: 1. On-base Percentage: .350. Slugging Percentage: .535. Upside: Extreme – If healthy and motivated, he could emulate his 2001 campaign. A season of .315, 95-100 runs, 35 homers, and 125-130 RBI is conceivable. Downside: Extreme – A near-repeat of last year’s disaster is also possible. Even if his thumb is healed, other injuries could slow him to a season of .290, 50 runs, 15 homers, 55 RBI. Overall risk: Extreme.
Juan Gonzalez is a four-category stud when healthy. Oh, but that modifying phrase “when healthy” is a killer. The oft-injured slugger endured his worst season yet in 2002; a tear in the webbing of his thumb prevented him from driving the ball and held him to a dismally low eight homers and .451 slugging percentage. He eschewed off-season surgery for lengthy rest, and he and the Rangers claimed he is fully healed. Perhaps so, but Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus offered a very gloomy forecast on whether Gonzalez’s hand would hold up. It has so far, but Gonzalez already has missed several Spring Training games with back spasms. What’s worse is that his injuries usually are of the “day-to-day” variety and don’t require any DL time, thus frustrating your roster management.
How much time will Gonzalez miss in 2003? As a full-time player, Gonzalez has missed a median of 22 games per season. In three seasons, he has missed eight or fewer games; in six seasons, he missed between 18 and 29 games; and in three other seasons (including 2000 and 2002) he has missed at least 47 games. Excluding strike-shortened years, Gonzalez has accumulated 600 or more plate appearances only three times. His average is 567, but again, his two worst years were in 2000 and 2002. This season, I’m predicting 500 (equivalent to 120-125 games), below his average but far higher than last year’s 296. I also predict better power than last year but less than his career average of .563. Feel free to disagree.
Concerning where to draft him, ESPN, you and I appear to be of the same mind. ESPN ranks him as the 34th best outfielder, and on average he has been the 31st outfielder chosen. My self-developed projections also rank him 31st. If you draft him, you must stash an outfielder on your bench to cover the games Gonzalez will miss. If he starts the season hot, trade him if you can get full value in return. Gonzalez might not slow down, but you’ll get a solid player in return and will have transferred a lot of risk to a league opponent.
The Ongoing Third Base Saga
HANK BLALOCK is hitting better of late, pushing his line up to .267/.371/.400, while MARK TEIXEIRA has an impressive line of .257/.381/.514. Teixeira’s only negative thus far is his 11 strikeouts in 35 at-bats. Sabermetricians don’t sweat the Ks, but the Rangers brass may be slightly more inclined to give him some AAA seasoning because of them. At this point, I stand somewhat shakily by my original prediction that Teixeira will open the season in AAA. I do expect him to join the team by summer and attain 300-400 plate appearances. Meanwhile, HERBERT PERRY remains hobbled by a sore knee and shoulder and won’t play until the last week of Spring Training at the earliest.
Sleepers Among Pitchers? Heavens, No.
Of the Rangers five candidates for the final two rotation spots – JOAQUIN BENOIT, DOUG DAVIS, RYAN DRESE, COLBY LEWIS, and C.J. NITKOWSKI -- none has an ERA below 5.40. Benoit should win one spot, and he and Lewis may become worthwhile fantasy pitchers someday. Nevertheless, avoid them all. Yes, starting pitching in the AL is very thin, what with the mystery meat being offered by Detroit, Kansas City and Tampa Bay, but you still need to look elsewhere. You’re better off waiting until the season starts to see which undrafted pitchers might pay off, then nab them. There’s always a few every year. Maybe you’ll catch this year’s Rodrigo Lopez.
A-Rod Injured, Ranger Fans Faint In Unison.
ALEX RODRIGUEZ has complained of stiffness and fatigue in his left (non-throwing) shoulder and flew to Dallas for tests. At this point, it does not appear serious and doesn’t merit knocking him down in your draft rankings. I’ll update this space as soon as I hear of a prognosis. --- Farewell to Yankees Correspondent Mick Doherty, whose switch from Texas allowed me the opportunity to write these little columns. Interested readers can peruse his work at www.battersbox.ca, where Toronto scribe Kent Williams and friends discuss Blue Jay baseball and beyond. --- Email questions and comments to ranger03@texas.net. Archive of previous columns, including detailed analyses of A-Rod, Palmeiro, Park and Diaz, are located at http://srl.home.texas.net. --- Happy 40th Anniversary, Mom and Dad.
Analyzing UGUETH URBINA
2003 PROJECTIONS: Position: Closer. Wins: 2. Saves: 35. ERA: 3.60. WHIP: 1.23. SO: 73. Upside: Low – 40 saves are possible. Stats for relievers fluctuate the most from year to year, and slightly better peripherals are possible. Downside: Low – Is in no danger of losing closer role and has never posted an ERA worse than 4.05 since his rookie season. The downside comes from his pitching style, which is not suited to the Ballpark. Overall risk: Low.
First, the bad news: In 2002, Urbina blew five of twelve saves opportunities when entering the game with a one-run lead. He struggles against lefthanded batters (.267/.343/.478 from 2000-2002, vs. .173/.224/.288 against righties), and unlike Fenway Park and Olympic Stadium, the Ballpark is Valhalla for lefthanded hitters. Likewise, he has evolved into an extreme flyball pitcher, another red flag in a small park with a shaky defensive outfield. Expect a few more home runs allowed. One or two nightmarish outings could thrust his ERA above 4.00 for the year.
Now, the good news: Who cares? Urbina saved 40 games last year. He is a classic, ninth-inning-only “professional closer” whose job is quite secure. The Rangers are not paying him $4 million to mop up for Doug Davis. He pitched more than one inning only three times last year, and 14 of his 40 saves involved pitching one inning to preserve a three-run lead. Nice work if you can get it. Barring a disaster, Urbina will keep his job and save at least 30 games. The 70 strikeouts are a nice bonus, and while his ERA and WHIP are nothing special for a closer, his performance in those areas won’t hurt you. Draft him with confidence.
Analyzing ISMAEL VALDES
2003 PROJECTIONS: Position: #2 Starter. Wins: 11. ERA: 4.50. WHIP: 1.36. SO: 108. Upside: Low-to-moderate – Valdes was betrayed by poor run support and a worse bullpen in 2002. He should win more than nine games. Downside: Low-to-moderate – Valdes’ strikeout rate fell to a shaky 4.7 per nine IP and home run rate increased, yet he lowered his ERA from 4.45 to 4.17. Was he good or lucky? Overall risk: Moderate.
The Rangers wisely scooped up Valdes for a pittance of $2.5 million. Valdes had a 3.93 ERA as a Ranger, but another sub-4.00 performance is unlikely. To an extent, Valdes walked on the lucky side last year, allowing a .253 batting average on balls hit into the field of play (i.e., excluding homers and strikeouts) compared to a career average of .288. Expect him to allow a few more hits in 2003. Valdes pitches well in real-life but doesn’t offer much to fantasy owners, and his home field perpetually threatens to humiliate any pitcher. Save him for a waiver-wire pickup in mixed leagues. He is a solid if unexciting pick in AL-only leagues in the late-middle rounds.
An Inanimate Carbon A-Rod?
ALEX RODRIGUEZ has nothing more (and nothing less) than a herniated disc in his neck. He received a shot to relieve the inflammation and is a expected to resume workouts soon. Whether or when he will appear in another Spring Training game is unknown as of Saturday. Apparently, the injury is minor and in a “good” location compared to the lower back. Is this the kind of injury that could linger? Anything is possible, but no one involved seems to think the situation too serious. If A-Rod does miss significant action, the most likely scenario involves MICHAEL YOUNG moving to shortstop (where he already qualifies in ESPN leagues) and HANK BLALOCK manning second base. Depending on various personnel decisions yet to be made, JERMAINE CLARK could also play 2B.
Latest Installment of “Who’s On Third”
MARK TEIXEIRA leads or co-leads the team in homers, RBI and walks and has a line of .286/.400/.667. Yet, as GM John Hart said Friday, “Do we play Teixeira at third and sit Blalock? Do we play Teixeira at first and sit Rafael Palmeiro? Do we play Blalock and sit Michael Young?" Furthermore, if CARL EVERETT doesn’t play center field regularly and HERBERT PERRY heals quickly, the DH rotation becomes even more crowded. As I’ve said, Teixeira may force himself onto the 25-man roster, but he could also start the season in AAA regardless of how he plays in the spring.
Analyzing CARL EVERETT
2003 PROJECTIONS: Position: OF, DH. Spot in Batting Order: #2 or #6. Plate Appearances: 500. Batting Average: .270. Runs: 67. Homers: 25. RBI: 79. Steals: 4. On-base Percentage: .340. Slugging Percentage: .500. Upside: Moderate-to-high – Everett a stud when healthy; batted .300 with 34 homers and 108 RBI in 2000, in 2003 had .929 OPS after All-Star break. Downside: High – Doesn’t hit lefties, inconsistent, injury-prone, and will lose some plate appearances if not the everyday CF. Overall risk: High.
Let’s not be coy: Carl Everett is a wretched centerfielder. Even if the Rangers sacrifice a goat or translate the runes on the cover of Led Zeppelin IV, Everett isn’t going to get any better. The Rangers will trade him if they find a taker for his gigantic contract, but assuming he stays, they need his bat in the lineup and will have him DH and spot at all three outfield positions. Glanville will gain at-bats as a result, Mench will lose a few, and others in the DH mix will also lose some playing time. Some, but not too much; Everett is terribly injury-prone and has averaged 123 games per season as a regular. Likewise, he has averaged 493 plate over the last six years and qualified for the batting title only three times. Expect some down time.
Everett can still pummel the ball when healthy. In 2002, after a criminally awful three-plus months in which he batted .195 with six homers, he batted .340 and slugged .606 with 10 homers and 41 RBI over his last 50 games. He won’t bat .340 for a full season, but (dare I say it) Everett should play just often enough and just well enough to warrant a late-round selection in mixed leagues. Many owners will glance at his dismal 2002 numbers and ignore him altogether, so you might swipe him in the final round of the draft if you’re not afraid to take a chance. Alas, one final negative note: Everett doesn’t hit lefties well. If you own him and have the flexibility, bench him against Zito, Washburn and their ilk.
Analyzing KEVIN MENCH
2003 PROJECTIONS: Position: OF, DH. Spot in Batting Order: #2, #6 or #7. Plate Appearances: 550. Batting Average: .270. Runs: 75. Homers: 20. RBI: 75. Steals: 1. On-base Percentage: .340. Slugging Percentage: .460. Upside: Moderate – Has shown flashes of brilliance, had 1.024 OPS after first 34 games of career. Downside: Moderate – Streaky and erratic in Majors and during minor-league career. Could be demoted if he starts the year poorly. Overall risk: Moderate.
Several publications have listed Kevin Mench as a breakout candidate. I can’t quite bring myself to do the same; his career stats (minor and major) are too inconsistent for me to recommend him wholeheartedly in mixed leagues. That said, he should put up adequate numbers and show improvement over his 2002 campaign. Though the aforementioned issues with Everett may cut into his playing time, he still should accrue 500 or more plate appearances. In terms of fantasy play, Mench reminds me of Jay Gibbons with a better batting average. Nothing exciting, but he’s a late-round pick you won’t regret later.
Third Base Update
HANK BLALOCK (.302/.388/.488 in spring) will be the third baseman on Opening Day. HERBERT PERRY, honest to a fault, admitted being nowhere near ready to play third base. Though he might be capable of playing first or DH’ing, he’s more likely to begin the season on the DL. The Everett situation may not leave enough at-bats for MARK TEIXEIRA (.269/.387/.635), whom the Rangers want to be an everyday player. If Teixeira starts the season in AAA, Blalock’s backup is MIKE LAMB, an adequate hitter but hamfisted defender.
A-Rod, Glanville, Etc.
ALEX RODRIGUEZ said his rehabilitation to carry into the regular season, though he expects to play. He’s still a first rounder, but probably not the first overall pick. For now, I’d pick Vlad in a 5x5 league. ---- Nothing official has been announced, but DOUG GLANVILLE appears to be the primary center fielder. Glanville is batting .340 but has yet to walk in 51 plate appearances. He’ll offer limited value in 5x5 leagues, less in sabermetric leagues.
Teixeira In, Blalock Over, Young Out
Not only is the second base job undecided, but putative third baseman HANK BLALOCK has the edge over incumbent MICHAEL YOUNG. I have to say I’m very surprised. Not that I think it is a bad idea, but the Rangers’ countenance of such a decision this soon amazes me. Blalock struggled mightily at the plate last year, and the Rangers ostensibly did not want to complicate his life by moving him to a more difficult position. Yet for now, they appear satisfied that Blalock can provide, at the least, defense equivalent to the departed Frank Catalanotto. If Blalock does move to second on a permanent basis, he could start against righties while Young gets the worse end of the platoon, and MARK TEIXEIRA would definitely starts most games at third. Plan accordingly.
Glanville In, Everett Around, Mench Impaired
Two days after I offered his analysis, KEVIN MENCH strained a back muscle and may begin the season on the disabled list. The Rangers do not expect him to miss more than a handful of regular season games. If you play in an AL-only league, be ready to grab him if a careless owner drops him to the waiver wire. Also, DOUG GLANVILLE earned the starting CF spot based on his strong defense (and Everett’s lack thereof). I still expect CARL EVERETT and KEVIN MENCH to attain 500 plate appearances. Between three outfield spots, the DH, and the certainty that JUAN GONZALEZ will miss his share of games, they will receive ample playing time.
Analyzing Doug Glanville
2003 PROJECTIONS: Position: OF. Spot in Batting Order: #1 or #9. Plate Appearances:: 550. Batting Average: .275. Runs: 70. Homers: 9. RBI: 45. Steals: 23. On-base Percentage: .310. Slugging Percentage: .380. Upside: Moderate – If he retains his starting role throughout the season, he could score 85 runs, drive in 55, and steal 30 bases. Downside: Moderate – Batted .249/.292/.344 last year, unacceptable numbers no matter how much better than Everett his defense is. Overall risk: Moderate.
Me, January 2nd: “The Rangers will suffer if [Glanville] leads off at all or tallies more than 300 plate appearances.” Ranger fans, prepare to suffer. Even with a healthy knee, CARL EVERETT proved incapable of playing centerfield, so the Rangers appointed Glanville the starter. This, by itself, is defensible, but not if they plan to bat him in the leadoff position. In 1999, he walked at a career-best rate of once per 14.3 plate appearances, and, not coincidentally, batted a career-best .325. Since then, he’s walked once per 21.2 plate appearances and batted .263 with a miserable OBP of .295. Guess which path he’s likely to follow in 2003? This spring, he has yet to walk in 55 plate appearances.
My projections are based on about 120-130 games played. Obviously, playing in 150 games would improve his counting stats, as would batting leadoff. It’s also possible that Glanville could achieve a Ballpark-induced batting average above .280. On the downside, if the Rangers are effectively eliminated by late summer, they may look into the future by putting MICHAEL YOUNG or JERMAINE CLARK in center field. In mixed leagues, Glanville provides steals and runs but little else. His batting average is more palatable in AL-only leagues.
Rotation In Spin Cycle
ISMAEL VALDES, not CHAN HO PARK, will start Opening Day. Valdes by far has pitched better than any other starting pitcher in camp (faint praise indeed), and the Rangers want to relieve some of the pressure Park has put on himself. JOHN THOMSON, with no “p,” is the third starter. The team is no closer to determining the fourth and fifth starters than when Spring Training began. Would-be starters JOAQUIN BENOIT, DOUG DAVIS, COLBY LEWIS, RYAN DRESE and C.J. NITKOWSKI continue to make Buck Showalter gulp doughnut-sized tablets of Rolaids every time they pitch. The Rangers will use only four starters over the first twelve games, so their fifth starter definitely will have a 0.00 ERA going into mid-April.
Endnotes
ALEX RODRIGUEZ is improving and may play in a minor-league game on Sunday. HERBERT PERRY might avoid the disabled list but will be limited to pinch hitting duties early in the season. The extra bench spot created by the four-man rotation may create a roster spot for RUBEN SIERRA, who has batted well this spring. Sierra could DH if Mench misses any games but won’t play much when Mench, Everett, Glanville and Gonzalez are all healthy. Hmmm. Sierra might play more than I think.
Let the Games Begin
First of all, I’ve received several emails bemoaning my lack of an update since the 22nd. Criticism accepted. Unfortunately, I had an intense, week-long business trip that demanded all of my time. (If you need any information about large, vacant retail buildings in Abilene, Texas, I’m your man.) Would that I could reverse the situation, but the job that pays the bills must take precedence. In the future, I will try to provide at least a modest update during the week regardless of my schedule. But enough about me. The TEXAS RANGERS open the season tonight against the defending World Series champs from Anaheim. The game is on ESPN. The Mouse demands your attention.
Your 25-man Roster
PITCHERS: #1 starter Ismael Valdes, #2 starter Chan Ho Park, #3 starter John Thomson (who may miss a start with an ankle sprain), #4 starter Colby Lewis, closer Ugueth Urbina, and relievers Francisco Cordero, Esteban Yan, Jay Powell, Aaron Fultz, Reynaldo Garcia and C.J. Nitkowski. Ryan Drese will become the fifth starter when needed. CATCHERS: Einar Diaz, Todd Greene, Chad Kreuter. INFIEDLERS: 1B Rafael Palmeiro, 2B Michael Young, 3B/2B Hank Blalock, SS Alex Rodriguez, 3B/DH Mark Teixeira, 2B/CF Jermaine Clark, and 3B/1B/DH Mike Lamb. OUTFIELDERS: LF/CF Carl Everett, CF Doug Glanville, RF/DH Juan Gonzalez, OF/DH Ruben Sierra. On the DL: OF Kevin Mench, RP Todd Van Poppel and 3B/DH Herbert Perry. RP Jeff Zimmerman and OF Rusty Greer are also disabled.
Who Will Start?
In the short run, the lineup should approximate the following: Glanville in CF, Everett in LF, Rodriguez at SS, Gonzalez in RF, Palmeiro at 1B, Teixeira at DH, Blalock at 3B, Young at 2B, and Diaz at C. Kreuter will catch for Chan Ho Park, resuming the role he held in Los Angeles. Occasionally, Blalock may play at second against righties while Young sits. Against lefties, Blalock may sit while Teixeira plays third and Sierra holds the DH spot. Greene will pinch-hit for Diaz and sub at catcher, Clark will pinch-run, and Lamb will practice his sunflower-seed-spitting techniques from the bench.
In the long run, well, complications arise. When Mench comes off the DL, Everett will spend most of his time at DH, forcing Teixeira, Blalock and Young into an awkward rotation between second and third. Whoever hits worst among the three may find himself on the bench more often than he’d prefer. If Teixeira flops, an improbable but not inconceivable occurrence (see Blalock, 2002), he could spend a while in AAA. Instability is the bane of fantasy owners, but in real life the Rangers already look towards 2004 and will offer a variety of lineups this season. And, in all likelihood, Showalter’s plans will be subsumed by the inevitable injuries to the Rangers’ more fragile players.
Words About Teixeira
Mark Teixeira may become the next fantasy Albert Pujols, or the next Hank Blalock. Odds are that he will be neither. Almost all true rookies (those with zero Major League experience) are NOT quality fantasy players. Albert Pujols was a near-singular occurrence in the annals of fantasy baseball. Teixeira has all the potential in the world, but unless you’re in a keeper league, you don’t own his potential, you only own his next 162 games. So, expect some slumps, expect a stint in AAA. If Teixeira finishes with Corey Koskie-type numbers, that will be a fantastic season for someone with 86 games of pro experience, none above AA.
On The Waiver Wire
Among Ranger outfielders, only JUAN GONZALEZ is owned universally in mixed leagues. Among the others, CARL EVERETT provides the most short-term help. He should post respectable numbers (gigantic caveat coming up), “when healthy.” DOUG GLANVILLE isn’t worth much unless you’re desperate for steals, while KEVIN MENCH is on the DL until mid-April. If someone in an AL-only league drops him, pick him up fast. MICHAEL YOUNG and HANK BLALOCK are widely available but not worth picking up, though Blalock is worth watching to see if he picks up starts at 2B. No starting pitchers are widely owned in mixed leagues and none deserves to be. RUBEN SIERRA lucked into making the roster and probably will not play enough to please the 89% of you who own him in AL-only leagues.
Endnotes
The Rangers’ first 25 games are against Anaheim, Oakland, Seattle, New York and Boston. How wonderful. ---- Jamey Newberg’s Ranger Minor League Report (www.newbergreport.com) is an absolute must-read for serious Ranger fans or those needing more information about upcoming Rangers prospects.
One Step Forward, Two Steps Back
Spring in Texas means three things: 1) Bluebonnets. 2) Women wearing fewer clothes. 3) The Rangers’ white-knuckle death-grip on last place in the ERA standings. The Rangers began 2003 with a sparkling, hope-inducing victory against the World Champion, chemistry-rich, good-times-all-around Anaheim Angels. They promptly forfeited their goodwill with two grim defeats punctuated by yet another spectacular display of ineptitude by CHAN HO PARK (even with personal catcher CHAD KREUTER behind the plate). As for JOHN THOMSON, he pitched better than his line suggests, though that’s little comfort to his owners in AL-only leagues.
Despite my comments above (and especially despite the doom-laden assessments in the D/FW media), hopelessness is ill-advised. The Rangers’ first 25 games are a living nightmare, nothing but the AL West plus New York and Boston. In my opinion, a 10-15 record over this stretch would be satisfactory. In real life and from a fantasy standpoint, the Rangers should be expected to struggle for a while.
Perry arriving, so who’s departing?
HERBERT PERRY should return during this weekend from the disabled list. The Rangers have not decided who will be demoted to create room for Perry. I see four possibilities: 1) MIKE LAMB, who had a miserable spring and whose one true skill (lefthanded bat off the bench) seems superfluous with the talent around him; 2) one of the two backup catchers, TODD GREENE or CHAD KREUTER; 3) one of the backup outfielders, RUBEN SIERRA or JERMAINE CLARK; or 4) MARK TEIXEIRA. Teixeira has started the season oh-for-seven with a walk. That’s not a crime in most states, but as Teixeira had never played above AA before this week, some Triple-A seasoning might be in order. Such a move would leave the fielding-impaired Lamb to back up HANK BLALOCK, since Perry will be unable to play third for a while.
I think Teixeira survives this round. But with TODD VAN POPPEL, KEVIN MENCH (out another 7-14 days), and RYAN DRESE on the horizon, Teixeira may find himself spending the nights in Oklahoma City for a while. Don’t be too surprised if it happens, and be patient. He’ll be back. As for Perry, he doesn’t have much to do if Teixeira stays with the big boys. He’ll DH occasionally, pinch-hit and might sub for Palmeiro once in a blue moon, but that’s about it. If Teixeira does depart, Perry will see more time at DH, but even that could change when Mench returns and shoves CARL EVERETT into the crowded DH mix. Unless someone else is injured (always a possibility with this club), Perry is likely to disappoint fantasy owners even in AL-only leagues. Only the desperate need apply.
Blalock Visits Second Base
In ESPN leagues, three starts or five appearances at a position conveys eligibility. Hank Blalock started at second base for the first time on Wednesday, partly to give Teixeira a chance to play third, and partly to give MICHAEL YOUNG a respite from a tough righthanded starter. Likewise, when the Rangers face Oakland’s murderous lefthanders next week, Blalock may ride the pine. Expect Showalter to continue this semi-platoon as he tries to give Teixeira, Blalock and Young ample playing time while eliminating difficult matchups. Meanwhile, Young is fantasy-eligible at shortstop, is widely available, and would make an adequate replacement for Derek Jeter.
Eliminate Mediocrity From Your Life
ESTEBAN YAN is owned in 62% of AL-only leagues. I can only assume his high ownership is due to the draft ranking earned from his closer status in 2002. Since ESPN will not entrust me with such complicated html coding as bolds and italics, I can only yell: DROP HIM! DROP HIM IMMEDIATELY! Yan is not the closer in Texas. He isn’t even the setup man. The only way he’ll receive any save opportunities is if UGUETH URBINA and FRANCISCO CORDERO both move to Norway. Yan has a career ERA of 5.27 and a WHIP of 1.47 in 438 innings. Someone better – a Groom, Bradford, Donnelly, or Hasegawa – should be available.
Minor Matters
With the move of their Spring Training home from Florida to Arizona, the Rangers changed affiliations for all but one of their minor-league teams. The AAA team remains the Oklahoma Redhawks. The AA team is now the Frisco (TX) Roughriders, located a scant forty miles from The Ballpark. The high-A club is the Stockton (CA) Ports, the low-A team the Clinton (IA) Lumberkings. The Rangers also have a short-season A-squad in Spokane and a rookie club at the base camp in Surprise, AZ.
Valdes for MVP
Sure, A-Rod, Tejada and Giambi are capable baseball players, but ISMAEL VALDES is the most valuable player in baseball. Laugh if you will, but imagine the Rangers be without him? Ranger pitchers lacking the “Valdes” surname have combined for an 8.12 ERA and 2.00 WHIP, plus six hit batters, four wild pitches, a balk, and seven stolen bases allowed with no runners caught.
Hank Blalock Explodes
Thanks to his superhuman line of .500-6-3-6-0, ownership of HANK BLALOCK has increased from 16% to 80% in one week. Pessimist that I am, I predict he won’t maintain that pace for the entire season. Most regular players have weeks like his at some point during the season; Blalock’s week stands out for occurring so early. Nevertheless, Blalock looks fully recovered from last year’s debacle and has staked claim on the #2 spot in the batting order ahead of A-Rod, Palmeiro and Gonzalez. He’ll satisfy owners looking for respectable production and is far more likely to bat .300 than hit 20 homers.. Unfortunately, Texas faces three consecutive lefties starting Tuesday, and Blalock probably will start only one of those games. You’re best off benching him until Friday.
Mark Teixeira Stars In Dubious Role
That role being the one filled by Hank Blalock in 2002. Teixeira is oh-for-the-season with one walk. Pitchers are throwing him almost nothing but breaking pitches and daring him to hit them. To some extent, he’s just experiencing bad luck. Several times, he’s hit the ball very hard but directly into a fielder’s glove. Teixeira probably will survive the first “cut” that will occur when HERBERT PERRY returns, but he may end up in AAA by month’s end. I still expect 350-400 plate appearances in the Majors this season. The good news is that he should start each of the next three games, all against lefties. The bad news is that those lefties are Zito, Mulder and Lilly.
Chan Ho Park Implodes
Two starts, 5.2 innings pitched, eleven hits, two homers, three hit batters, six walks, three strikeouts. Even with personal catcher/therapist CHAD KREUTER behind the plate, CHAN HO PARK has declined from 2002. His velocity is down and his location is nonexistent. For the first time, Ranger management is considering removing him from the rotation. His future performance is virtually impossible to predict, which, when you think about it, is a worse situation than knowing for certain that he’ll be awful. Even in AL-only leagues, his owners should look for a replacement. At the least, bench him until he shows his can still pitch. I own him in an AL-only league, benched him prior to his last start, and expect to replace him this week.
Valdes and Lewis: Blistering
ISMAEL VALDES has a problem with blistering, and I don’t mean the speed of his pitches. No, Valdes’ fingers tend to blister while he pitches. He will make his next appointed start but probably will be limited to 80-90 pitches. Valdes offers a solid WHIP, mediocre ERA, and few strikeouts. On Saturday, COLBY LEWIS fulfilled some of his potential by striking out eight and allowing three runs in 6.2 innings in an 8-4 win. Many AL-only owners will take a chance on him, but not with my recommendation. Lewis has #2-#3 starter potential (on a good staff, not just the Rangers) but has had minimal success prior to Saturday night. Considering his home park and tough upcoming schedule (Oakland twice, Anaheim and New York), he’s a huge risk.
Substitution Blues
During the first six games, ostensible #1 catcher EINAR DIAZ has only three starts, Teixeira three, Young four, Everett four, and Sierra four. Platoons and time-sharing arrangements are the ants at your fantasy picnic, but if you own any of these players, you’d better cover your potato salad. Early on, manager Buck Showalter wants to give everyone some action and give some putative starters extra rest. Also, he has to decide who will be optioned to AAA when HERBERT PERRY returns. Perry might return by the end of the week. Candidates for demotion include MIKE LAMB, JERMAINE CLARK and the aforementioned Teixeira. Everyday players thus far are Palmeiro, Rodriguez, Blalock, Glanville and Gonzalez. Except for Blalock, they should start almost every game when healthy.
On The Farm Or On The Mend
Outfielder CARL EVERETT has a mildly sore quadricep and may not play with much frequency this week. Outfielder KEVIN MENCH should return in about two weeks. Reliever TODD VAN POPPEL, out with a groin injury, may spend some time in the minors building his endurance so that he can become a starter. Eventual fifth starter RYAN DRESE was drilled in his warmup start for AA Frisco, while rotation reject DOUG DAVIS pitched brilliantly in an Opening Day win for AAA Oklahoma.
A Shaft Of Gold When All Around Is Dark
Down 4-0 in the fourth inning against Oakland on Thursday and staring a 2-7 record in the face, the Rangers staged an impressive and inspiring comeback victory, thus temporarily lifting the murky, soup-thick dread and fatalism that permeates this franchise when it plays a division opponent Okay, perhaps that’s an overstatement. In any case, after Friday night’s equally improbable victory (Chan Ho Park threw 114 pitches in five innings, walking seven, but surrendered only one run), the Rangers have a tolerable 4-6 record ten games into their 25-game fright-fest against Seattle, Oakland, Anaheim, New York, and Boston.
Starters and Would-Be Starters
MARK TEIXEIRA, who inaugurated his career with sixteen hitless at-bats, finally gave his owners reason to celebrate with three hits in his last six at-bats including his first home run. He has started six of ten games, a trend likely to continue assuming he stays when Mench and Perry return. His situation remains fluid: improved results will merit extra at-bats, continued struggle may result in demotion to AAA. Meanwhile, HANK BLALOCK started two of the three games against Oakland’s all-lefty rotation, more than I expected, but went 1-for-8. He has appeared only once at second base and probably will replace MICHAEL YOUNG only against tough righties. He’ll get 2B eligibilty in ESPN leagues in late May at this rate.
DOUG GLANVILLE’s season is unfolding according to schedule. He should hit better than .227 but the rest is classic Doug: good production in steals, an occasional home run, few RBIs and not nearly as many runs as a leadoff hitter should score. Nevertheless, he appears to be in no danger of losing his job. EINAR DIAZ, just barely worth owning in AL-only leagues, should play more often over the coming weeks. RAFAEL PALMEIRO took the day off Thursday; expect the same from JUAN GONZALEZ in the near future. Gonzalez has commanded premium value in several trades (Mussina, Oswalt, Matt Morris, Posada, et al.), and his owners with already solid outfields should consider dealing him while his value is high.
Roster Manoeuvres In The Dark
In need of a fifth starter, the Rangers recalled RYAN DRESE to start Saturday’s game in Seattle. Drese is respectful of his elders and feeds stray kittens, but fantasy owners should avoid him like toxic waste. MIKE LAMB, who had performed respectably in a sub/pinch-hit role in 2002 but flatlined this spring, was optioned to Oklahoma. Outfielder KEVIN MENCH should return sometime next week. His arrival could signal the departure of a backup catcher, RUBEN SIERRA, JERMAINE CLARK or Teixeira. Mench should start about four games per week but might be eased into regular playing time. CARL EVERETT’s status will suffer only slightly if SIERRA is optioned for Mench. HERBERT PERRY now has a strained oblique muscle to compliment his sore shoulder and knee. He may miss another two weeks.
WHIPped
Ranger starters have a 1.92 WHIP, just slightly below my WHIP as a pitcher in co-rec softball. CHAN HO PARK probably salvaged his rotation spot for the time being despite walking seven in five innings Friday. JOHN THOMSON pitched brilliantly in a 2-1 loss to Oakland on Tuesday. He’ll do that occasionally. In deep AL-only leagues he’s an acceptable risk. Less acceptable is COLBY LEWIS, who walked eight in 3.2 innings Thursday, dismaying owners who picked him up against my advice. Lewis is a very promising pitcher, but promises won’t win your fantasy league. Speaking of advice, ISMAEL VALDES responded to my “solid WHIP” comment by allowing nine runners in four innings on Wednesday. Thanks, Izzy. Still, he remains the best Ranger starter to own if you must.
The relievers have fared better, posting a 1.68 WHIP and 5.40 ERA. Success is relative in Rangerland. UGUETH URBINA has four saves in four chances. Among other relievers, only FRANCISCO CORDERO offers any value, and only in AL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues. AARON FULTZ (who is nobody’s LOOGY, Gizzi!) has pitched very well but is more likely to regress toward his career ERA of 4.59 than continue his recent dominance. Don’t waste your time. The other relievers are mostly overpaid mediocrities including the still hideously over-owned ESTEBAN YAN, who won’t save a thing unless he clips the Chips Ahoy coupon out of the Sunday paper.
We’ve Been Here Before, Or Have We?
The pitching defies expletive-free description The hitting is paradoxically heavy in homers but deficient in runs. Despite having a new manager, the Rangers insist on placing their worst hitter in the leadoff spot game after game. And yet… the Rangers show signs of improvement. Their efforts do not seem so futile. The distance between them and their division opponents is not as great as it once was. Small steps, perhaps, but when your favorite team has finished last three years running, you look for what you can.
Platoon Blues Part 1: Blalock
Despite starting the year at a torrid pace of .423/.464/.731, HANK BLALOCK has started only two of five games against lefthanded pitching. Annoying as that may be to his owners, it’s not without good cause. In his brief career, Blalock has batted .308/.382/.500 against righties and .075/.159/.075 against lefties (3-for-40 with no extra base hits and three walks). Not to say that Blalock can’t hit lefties, but he hasn’t so far. Hence, even if Blalock does start against a lefty, he’s not helping your fantasy team. Ideally, owners should have a backup 3B to start when Blalock faces a lefty. Blalock has only one start at second base, back on April 2. Blalock might start occasionally at second, but his owners are better off assuming he won’t gain 2B eligibility any time soon.
Platoon Blues Part 2: Teixeira
MARK TEIXEIRA has started eleven of sixteen games, including five-of-five against lefties and six-of-eleven against righties. GM John Hart has assured the populace that Teixeira is in no danger of being demoted. Press statements aren’t made under oath (ever listened to Ari Fleischer?), so take Hart’s for what you will. Regardless, Teixeira must hit better or the Rangers will have no choice but to send him to AAA for a while. Though it’s of little consolation to fantasy owners, Teixeira is walking at a rate than once-per-ten plate appearances and isn’t striking out excessively often. A good batting eye indicates (but doesn’t guarantee) future success, so he should show improvement in the not-too-distant future.
Mench Returns, Glanville Departs, Everett Belts
DOUG GLANVILLE pulled a hamstring running to first on Monday and was placed on the DL Thursday. Stash him on your DL if you must; better yet, scan the waiver wire for a replacement for the .200-hitting outfielder. Glanville shouldn’t miss beyond the minimum of fifteen days. In the meantime, the Rangers recalled RYAN CHRISTENSON to replace Glanville in the lineup. He should start most games in center during Glanville’s absence. He hit well in AAA and Spring Training but has a career line of .232/.313/.343 in the Majors. He might offer some short-term help to owners in deep AL-only leagues.
Also recalled Thursday, a day earlier than expected, was outfielder KEVIN MENCH. Mench, like Everett, Blalock and Teixeira, will start often but not every day. Presumably, Mench’s return signals the end of Buck Showalter’s queasy fascination with RUBEN SIERRA. Sierra’s owners shouldn’t cut him quite yet but should prepare to in the near future. Fellow outfielder CARL EVERETT is batting .348-13-5-8-1 and getting some attention in mixed leagues. Through Thursday, his batting average is 70 points above his career average, and his slugging percentage is over 200 points above his career line. So, don’t expect this trend to continue. Still, Everett is as healthy as can be and should offer respectable production in mixed leagues demanding five outfielders (such as ESPN).
Ranger Starting Pitching
By definition, Ranger starting pitchers are erratic. If you glanced only at the most recent starts of JOHN THOMSON, ISMAEL VALDES, and even CHAN HO PARK, you’d see some very solid performances. But only Valdes has any business belonging on a mixed-league roster, and only deep leagues at that. Thomson has talent but his peripheral worry me; his K/BB ratio of 16/2 and ground/fly ratio of 2.45 are way out of line with his career stats. Park just worries me, period. I dropped him in my AL-only league. Most of his value comes from strikeouts, but he has only ten in four starts so far. COLBY LEWIS is promising but too green for a fantasy team. RYAN DRESE pitched reasonably well on Thursday, but Showalter let him throw an unconscionable, inexcusable 137 pitches.
Ephemera
HERBERT PERRY, nursing a strained oblique muscle as well as a sore shoulder and knee, won’t return before the end of the month. If fact, he broached the possibility of surgery if he doesn’t improve soon. The Rangers have every Monday off until June 23. ---- I read that Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush are the odds-on favorites to represent their parties in the 2008 presidential election. If so, I may become the most avid Ranger fan in all of Canada.
Survival
With six games remaining in their 25-game opening stretch/nightmare against Anaheim, Oakland, Seattle, New York and Oakland, the Rangers stand at 8-11. An 8-11 record is hardly impressive, but compared to last year’s 5-13 start, it’s progress. The Rangers will face the daunting rotation of Pedro, Wakefield, Lowe, Mussina, Wells and Weaver this week before settling into considerably easier competition. After this week, 24 of the next 30 games are against the Jays, Rays, Orioles and Indians.
Gonzalez Goes On Spring Break…
JUAN GONZALEZ is batting a less-than-robust .175/.195/.175 with one run and zero RBIs in his last ten games. I wouldn’t read too much into his slump. All players experience them; his stands out for occurring so early in the season. By all accounts, the hand injury that ruined his 2002 campaign has not resurfaced. After six games against New York and Boston, the Rangers’ schedule eases considerably, with 24 of 30 games against the Tribe, Jays, Rays, and Orioles. A large handful of at-bats against Victor Zambrano and his ilk should produce more attractive statistics from Juan.
…While Teixeira Returns From His
Since his 0-for-16 start, MARK TEIXEIRA is batting a respectable .250/.365/.472. Teixeira also has started six consecutive games leading into Tuesday, but for now I don’t expect him to play more often than he has so far. He has started six of eleven against righthanded starters and all eight games against lefties. Fellow third sacker HANK BLALOCK will continue to start only sporadically against lefties.
Enjoy the Ride
CARL EVERETT, bestowed with the dual honors of AL Player of the Week and Most Added in ESPN Fantasy Leagues, is generously making me appear informed. I believed Everett would play just often enough and just well enough to merit a late-round pick in mixed leagues, and he’s done that and much more. That said, I still wouldn’t count on him repeating his monster years of 1999-2000. The soon-to-be-32 outfielder has never missed fewer than twenty games in a season. Enjoy the ride, but don’t be surprised or disappointed when he tails off or gets hurt. Everett is on pace to hit 60 homers with 85 RBI. Guess which one is more likely to occur.
And You Will Know Us By The Trail Of Injured
DOUG GLANVILLE’s hammy is not improving and the Rangers fear he will not return from the DL after the minimum fifteen days. His owners in AL-only leagues probably have to hold on to him but should scour the waiver wire for a permanent replacement. Temporary centerfielder RYAN CHRISTENSON is better than nothing, but not by much. Starter ISMAEL VALDES will not pitch until Saturday because of ever-present blisters and a shoulder described by Buck Showalter as “barky.” According to dictionary.com, that means Valdes’s shoulder is “covered with, or contain[s], bark.” Valdes and his barky shoulder will face the seven-runs-per-game-scoring Yankees, so consider benching him that day.
Colby Lewis’s Siren Song
COLBY LEWIS is getting some attention in AL-only leagues (and even in my 20-team mixed league) thanks to his strong performance against Oakland on Sunday. Lewis has a promising future, but in the win-now world of single-season fantasy ball, he’s a fraud. When I project a pitcher’s fantasy performance for the immediate future, I only glance at the ERA but scrutinize the peripherals: WHIP, K/BB ratio, HR/IP ratio, etc. Lewis’s peripherals are atrocious. A pitcher with a 1.84 WHIP will not maintain a 4.43 ERA for long. Lewis has walked 16 in his last 15.2 innings pitched and has a K/BB ratio of .79. In other words, more walks than strikeouts. Barring sudden improvement, his ERA will hop back into the 5.00s before long. Lewis pitches Friday against the ultra-patient Yankees.
Valdes Out
Putative ace ISMAEL VALDES has joined the ever-growing Disabled List with tendinitis in his throwing shoulder. The condition wasn’t deemed serious enough to merit anything more than rest, so Valdes should not miss much time beyond the required fifteen days. His replacement will be DOUG DAVIS, who pitched terribly in March, was outrighted but cleared waivers, and has since pitched very well in AAA including a tremendous (and completely uncharacteristic) 1/18 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Davis has pitched brilliantly on occasion in the big leagues but usually has been a low-strikeout, high-WHIP type who teeters on the edge of disaster. Owners in deep AL-only leagues can keep an eye on him, but otherwise, don’t bother.
Glanville Out Longer
DOUG GLANVILLE, already on the DL with a strained hamstring, was discovered to have a torn tendon that the hamstring pull aggravated. Glanville elected to have surgery on the tendon and will not return until late May. Unless you own him in a 12-team AL-only league or have an open DL slot, you should find a permanent replacement. RYAN CHRISTENSON, who is similar to Glanville but with more walks and a lower batting average, owns centerfield for 20-25 more games.
Mench Annoys The Faithful
Fresh off the DL, KEVIN MENCH has joined the rather large list of semi-platooned Rangers, including HANK BLALOCK, MARK TEIXEIRA, CARL EVERETT, and RUBEN SIERRA. Mench has started five of eight games since his return, doubtless frustrating owners who held him since Spring Training. I expected him to play more often, but most likely the Rangers are babying him to avoid a recurrence of his strained oblique muscle.
These players require active ownership to maximize their value. Thus far, Blalock has never missed a start against a righthander but hasn’t played much (or well) against lefties. Teixeira always starts against lefties but has started only 8 of 15 against a righty. Everett has no apparent usage pattern, but will sit less frequently as long as his hot streak continues. As for Mench, he hasn’t been around long enough to establish a trend, but for what it’s worth, he’s started every possible game against a lefty but just two of five against righties. I’d expect him to start roughly 75% of the time. Sierra has started only three of eight since Mench’s return. He has value only in deep AL-only leagues. Owners in smaller leagues should cut bait.
Mistrust
Familiar with “Component ERA?” It’s a formula devised by Bill James to measure a pitcher’s performance based on peripheral stats. To some extent, it measures how lucky or lucky a pitcher has been. Right now, you’ll find no two luckier pitchers than JOHN THOMSON and COLBY LEWIS, both of whom have real-life ERAs of about 4.50 and Component ERAs in excess of 6.00. Why the discrepancy? In Thomson’s case, it’s the .319 average and .578 slugging percentage he’s allowed. For Lewis, it’s the 23 walks in 28.1 innings. Despite my prior warning, Lewis tossed another Lewis-like semi-precious gem Friday, allowing three runs in six innings to the Yankees despite surrendering six hits and five walks. Owners of Thomson and Lewis should perpetually scan the waiver wire for a replacement.
Winning The Old-Fashioned Way
Way back in 1999, the Rangers won a club-record 95 games despite allowing 5.3 runs per game. A titanic offense and solid bullpen offset what may have been the worst starting rotation ever for a division-winning club. The just-completed series in Toronto evoked that magical season, as the Rangers took two of three despite allowing 20 runs, including 12 earned runs in just 13 innings by the starters. The Rangers now face a floundering Tribe and hope to reach .500 despite a rotation that currently features John Thomson as its ace.
Mench A Redhawk
KEVIN MENCH, generously allotted seven starts and 34 plate appearances by Buck Showalter to make his mark, was demoted to AAA to make room for pitcher Joaquin Benoit. Mench should return when Gonzalez or Everett suffer the inevitable injury, but he’s no longer worth holding in any league. RUBEN SIERRA and MARK TEIXEIRA should receive more at-bats as a result. Both should play often enough to merit ownership in AL-only leagues. In mixed leagues, neither will play often enough or well enough to pick up, though I can sympathize with those holding on to Teixeira. Teixeira is batting an adequate .250/.345/.458 since his 0-for-16 start. Teixeira should always start against lefties; unfortunately, the only known lefty starter over the next week is Sabathia on Sunday.
Part of this “job” is to predict what WILL happen, not what I WANT to happen. In the case of RUBEN SIERRA, I suppose I’ve let desire trump judgment, because Sierra has started fairly often despite my frequent assertions that he isn't worth owning. During the last nine games through Friday, Sierra had six starts while KEVIN MENCH and MARK TEIXEIRA each had three. To some extent, Teixeira and Mench lost at-bats because of the hot starts of HANK BLALOCK and CARL EVERETT. That is understandable. But considering that this team is playing for the future, starting a mediocre 37-year-old over a promising 24-year-old outfielder and a 23-year-old future stud is a remarkably poor decision. Of course, my opinion on this subject is worth exactly as much as I get paid to write this column.
Rotation In Flux
Another year, another stupid prediction regarding CHAN HO PARK. 13 wins? A 4.50 ERA? Sure, Scott. At least I did say (back on Feb. 28) that “I wouldn’t recommend drafting Park in mixed leagues unless you’re desperate for starters in the late rounds.” Unfortunately, I also said that “in AL-only leagues, [Park is] an acceptable middle-round pick.” Apparently Park’s back has been ailing him all spring and is responsible for his decline in velocity. Well, perhaps. Park is eligible to return on May 12, not that you should care.
The likewise-disabled ISMAEL VALDES is throwing in the bullpen and should return sometime next week. DOUG DAVIS, who pitched poorly against the Yankees in his call-up start, was summarily dismissed and then claimed by Toronto. He’ll enter their rotation but does not come recommended. His departure and the injuries to Valdes and Park have forced the Rangers to replenish their rotation in the form of JOAQUIN BENOIT and (gulp) TODD VAN POPPEL. Benoit has pitched respectably in AAA but very erratically in the Majors. Barring his capture of lightning in a bottle, he should return to AAA when Valdes returns. Van Poppel has been on the DL all season and will be making his debut. Even in AL-only leagues, they’re trouble.
A Slight Uptick
EINAR DIAZ has hit below my modest expectations, but with TODD GREENE’s injury and CHAD KREUTER’s release, Diaz will play much more often in the near term. Considering that the Rangers face only Toronto and Cleveland through May 11, AL-only owners desperate for catching should consider Diaz as a short-term solution. For that matter, any available Ranger should receive a slight boost from the relatively easy opposition coming up.
Blalock Returns to Earth
HANK BLALOCK, batting a white-hot .421/.468/.702 on April 21, has batted a more modest .275/.341/.400 in ten games since. He does have nine runs and five RBI over that stretch. Blalock also hit five homers in his first thirteen game but none in his next thirteen games. In terms of power, the real Hank Blalock lies somewhere in-between. Expect about 15-20 from him for the season.
Also expect Blalock to continue to sit against tough lefties. Showalter’s semi-platoon of Blalock may annoy his owners, but it shouldn’t. In 54 plate appearances against lefthanded pitchers, he’s batted .102 with no extra base hits. Thus, keeping his rear end on a pine plank every so often will help his batting average and other “rate” stats and won’t affect his “counting” stats very much. Ideally, your bench includes another 3B-eligible player with whom to create your own platoon.
Will Teixeira Join Mench?
As hinted in the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, MARK TEIXEIRA may be sent to AAA Oklahoma when HERBERT PERRY returns, perhaps by the end of this week. (Perry won’t help anyone outside of medium-to-large AL-only leagues.) Teixeira started thirteen of the first nineteen games but only four of twelve since. Showalter and Company claim they want to get him more plate appearances but have not done so. Teixeira’s overall numbers (.194/.289/.343) look bleak, but he is batting a more respectable .255/.345/.451 since an 0-for-16 start.
That doesn’t tell the whole story, unfortunately. Teixeira is the opposite of Blalock, batting .357 against lefties and just .077 against righties. The Rangers should see only three lefthanded starters over the next two weeks. Also, his usual followers in the batting order (Young, Diaz, Christenson, Glanville when healthy) have offered little support. Teixeira has scored only once in the 20 times he’s safely reached base by means other than the home run. Even if Texiera does remain in Texas, his owners in all but the deepest AL-only leagues must look elsewhere, as he won’t play often enough (barring injuries to others) to merit ownership regardless of how well he hits.
Whither Ismael and Chan Ho?
ISMAEL VALDES should return from the DL this week and is currently scheduled for a Saturday start against Cleveland. Ignore him in shallow and medium-sized mixed leagues. He’s pitched better than his 5.74 ERA suggests, but not enough to merit ownership. CHAN HO PARK is recovering nicely from his “back injury” but has not recovered any velocity on his fastball. Since he appears incapable of bringing the heat, he is working on his control. I suppose he could return to the semi-effective pitcher he was at the tail-end of 2002, but I’m not expecting it and certainly would not suggest that any fantasy owner, ANY owner, take a chance on him.
The Rest
DOUG GLANVILLE’s rehab is progressing nicely, though the Rangers have offered no timetable for his return. How does two weeks sound? RYAN CHRISTENSON owners should prepare for his departure. Might UGUETH URBINA be traded? He might, once the Rangers fall too far behind Seattle or Oakland to pretend that they’re contenders. Could he be traded to the NL and/or be used as a setup man? Yes, and possibly. The same applies to productive-but-costly free-agents-to-be CARL EVERETT and JUAN GONZALEZ, though I doubt either would be used as setup men.
Rotation Morphs Into Whirlpool
ALAN BENES joins the rotation for a couple of starts and perhaps more. The Rangers acquired Benes from the Cubs for the infamous PTBNL, probably (hopefully) a mediocre prospect. Since his shoulder surgery in 1997, Benes has pitched a grand total of 110 innings with an ERA of 5.05 and a WHIP of 1.57. In his first start Saturday, he pitched well through three innings before collapsing in the fourth. He’s of no value in mixed leagues and I can’t recommend him in AL-only leagues. Don’t waste a high waiver slot on him. Benes started in place of ISMAEL VALDES, with whom the Rangers wisely decided to be extra cautious. Valdes should return by the middle of next week. He’s pitched better than his 5.74 ERA implies, but not by enough to give him value outside medium-to-large-sized AL-only leagues.
Owners in “worst-is-first” fantasy leagues were saddened by this news: the Rangers rid themselves of the grim spectacle of RYAN DRESE, sending him, his 7.65 ERA, and his 2.35 WHIP (really) to Oklahoma City. CHAN HO PARK, sidelined with a chronic inability to pitch, will make two rehab starts for AA-Frisco before rejoining the rotation. I’ll report on his progress, but for now, he is a fantasy unperson. Though it gives me no pleasure, I was dead-on in my negative assessment of COLBY LEWIS. He will remain in the rotation (but not yours, I hope) but might be skipped once next week. JOHN THOMSON has an ERA of 8.22 in his last three starts. He’s not that bad, but he isn’t likely to offer better than 4.75 or so with a 1.40 WHIP.
The Love Bug Drives To Arlington
HERBERT PERRY, sidelined with a bruised knee and shoulder and a pulled oblique, finally returned to Texas Saturday and started at first base. Perry will spot Palmeiro at first and join a crowded DH mix. He may also sub at third when his arm is strong enough to manage cross-diamond throws. Since MIKE LAMB, not MARK TEIXEIRA, was sent to AAA in his place, don’t expect him to start very often. Aggravation of one of his many injuries is a definite possibility. Perry is worthless in mixed leagues and offers marginal value in AL-only leagues. Owners hoping for a repeat of his 22-homer performance of 2002 will be sorely disappointed.
As mentioned, Teixeira survived Perry’s return after much speculation that Texas would ship him to AAA to play on a regular basis. For now, his status probably won’t change much. As long as Perry can’t throw well, Teixeira will start as third against lefties and spot at DH and 1B. He’s batting a solid .278/.362/.475 since his 0-for-16 start but just won’t play enough to offer much except in larger AL-only leagues. Keep an eye on him, though. Fellow 3B HANK BLALOCK sat against lefty C.C. Sabathia Saturday.
Everett Takes The Lead
Having endured enough of the Rangers’ sub-.300 on-base percentage from the leadoff spot, Buck Showalter has placed CARL EVERETT in the #1 spot in several recent games. He may lose a few RBI as a result, but overall, owners should be happy with the extra at-bats he’ll receive. Everett usually bats second or sixth when not leading off and may revert to those spots when DOUG GLANVILLE returns. His current slugging percentage of .735 is 164 points above his career high, so don’t expect him to stay quite this hot.
Ephemera
From Saturday’s Fort-Worth Star Telegram: “Center fielder Doug Glanville, recovering from a hamstring surgery, said he will try to start hitting today,” presumably for the first time since 1999. RYAN CHRISTENSON’s marginal value will soon dissipate. Recently demoted KEVIN MENCH is batting .176/.222/.294 for Oklahoma. Teammate and 1B JASON HART is batting a torrid .305/.412/.525 but is about as blocked as a player can be.
One Out Of Three Ain’t Good
The Cleveland Indians are 1-13 versus Anaheim, Oakland and Seattle but 4-2 against Texas. That statistic typifies the Rangers’ May. After surviving a harsh 25-game opening schedule against division foes, New York, and Boston with a palatable record of 11-14, the Rangers have gone 5-10 while surrendering 7.4 runs per game. For fantasy purposes, the news isn’t quite as bad. 99% of the Rangers’ collective fantasy value is in hitting, and despite their increasingly dismal record, the Rangers are scoring a respectable 5.2 runs per game in May. After this weekend, Texas faces home-and-home series against both Tampa Bay and Baltimore.
Young Wins Popularity Contest
MICHAEL YOUNG is currently owned in 96% of ESPN’s mixed leagues, up from just 32% last week. Young is batting a spiffy .340 in May and .315 on the year. Is he legit? Yes, and no. He offers decent power for a middle infielder and could wind up with 10-15 homers. He also can run when the mood strikes; 10-15 steals are within reach. Young had batted a paltry .256 coming into the season, but an offseason that combined rigorous training and rumours that his job was not so secure may produce modest improvement to .275 or so.
On the downside, Young has been notoriously streaky in his short career. Consider his batting average by month during 2002: .333, .212, .283, .226, .330, .239. He walks rarely, so when the inevitable slump occurs, his production plummets. I’m not suggesting he’s due to collapse imminently, but I do recommend that his owners keep a close eye on him and always look for someone better. Young isn’t a Vidro or Boone, the kind of player you can put in your lineup and then ignore.
Teixeira Approaches Respectability
Amid rumours of a demoting to AAA, MARK TEIXEIRA started four consecutive games this week including one in left field. Teixeira has four outfield appearances on the season; one more will give him eligibility in ESPN leagues. Unfortunately, he also was plunked on the hand by a Mike Timlin pitch Wednesday and, while it’s not too serious, he hasn’t played since and is day-to-day. Once he returns, Teixeira should play slightly more often than before, perhaps two of every three games. Teixeira is batting a dandy .288/.369/.452 since his 0-for-16 start. He’s up to .236/.337/.371 on the season, and in time he’ll force me to drop the “since his 0-for-16 start” qualifier.
Will Pitch For Food
In May, Ranger starters sport an awe-inspiring 9.56 ERA and 1.66 WHIP and have yet to win a game. Fresh off the DL, ISMAEL VALDES is scheduled to pitch Saturday in New York. Valdes claims his shoulder and blister problems have disappeared, and the powerful Yanks are scoring only 4.2 runs per game at home (compared to 7.6 on the road). But, keeping in mind the line about discretion and valor, his owners should consider benching him until he shows on-the-field improvement. That said, he and JOHN THOMSON offer the best chance for semi-adequacy if you’re desperate for pitching. JOAQUIN BENOIT, COLBY LEWIS, and (goodness knows) ALAN BENES offer plenty of heartache and despair, if that’s the direction you want to travel.
Don’t Call It A Comeback
After sweeping the Yankees in the Bronx for the first time in franchise history, the Rangers continued their joyride by sweeping the Devil Rays and are within spitting distance of .500. The Rangers face Baltimore six times and Tampa Bay thrice before beginning Interleague play with difficult assignments at Atlanta and Montreal.
Big Tex Heats Up
Just three weeks ago, MARK TEIXEIRA was languishing on the bench and seemingly destined for AAA. Lately, he’s started eight of twelve, and three of the four missed games were due to a minor hand injury. Teixeira is batting .310/.388/.500 in May and should start more often thanks to the Rangers’ willingness to play him in the outfield, where he is now position-eligible in ESPN leagues. Teixeira hasn’t solved righties yet and won’t play every day, but he’s reaching the point where he can be useful in mixed leagues. If your roster is cluttered with a dubious non-hitter like Terrence Long or Joe Randa, Teixeira could make a dandy replacement.
Today’s Special: Strained Quad
Both JUAN GONZALEZ and CARL EVERETT are fighting strained quadriceps. Everett also has a jammed finger from sliding into a base on Tuesday. Everett sat out Wednesday’s game but was due for a rest anyway, having started 21 consecutive games, while Gonzalez has DH’ed two of the last four. Neither player is expected to miss significant time, but don’t be too surprised if each misses a game this weekend. Still, I wouldn’t suggest benching them unless you have a top-notch replacement.
Glanville To Resume Hitting Weakly
The Ranger hope to activate outfielder DOUG GLANVILLE by next Tuesday. Glanville is recovering from surgery on a torn hamstring He will resume duties as the everyday centerfielder but probably will bat near the bottom of the order instead of his customary first, where Carl Everett has set up shop. Glanville should hit an empty .270-.280 and steal the occasional base. Except in medium-to-large AL-only leagues, look elsewhere. RYAN CHRISTENSON is the obvious choice for demotion, but the Fort Worth Star-Telegram speculates that RUBEN SIERRA may finally be shown the door. I expect the Rangers to drop Christenson, whose skill set is made redundant with Glanville’s return. Even if Sierra stays, his status in the OF/DH rotation will suffer.
Korean Translator Neeeded
In his latest rehab start, CHAN HO PARK allowed 13 hits, four of them homers, and seven earned runs in 6.1 innings. He alleges to have “felt better than in the last start,” when presumably he was pitching from the inside of a coffin. Park will make at least one more start in AAA and may have to endure a full 30-day rehab assignment, the maximum allowed by rule. Oddly enough, the Rangers miss him about as much as I’m going to miss Ari Fleischer and Christine Todd Whitman, which is to say, not at all. Texas appears content to suffer the slings and arrows of ALAN BENES for the time being. Park will return sometime in early June.
The Rest
HERBERT PERRY has started only four of twelve games and pinch-hit five times since returning from the DL. Barring an injury to a teammate, that trend shouldn’t change. HANK BLALOCK still isn’t starting against lefties; plan accordingly. Outfielder KEVIN MENCH is batting a tepid .217/.324/.383 for Triple-A Oklahoma. Mench and outfielder RYAN LUDWICK are the most likely call-ups if Gonzalez or Everett is traded. Fellow Redhawk 1B/OF JASON HART has cooled off considerably lately. Regardless of how he hits, he has little chance to make an impact in Arlington with 500-homer hitter/800-pound gorilla RAFAEL PALMEIRO blocking his way.
The fantasy implications are simple: for nine road games, the Rangers will forego the designated hitter. Most likely to receive fewer at-bats is RUBEN SIERRA, who DH’es infrequently right now but doesn’t hit well enough to supplant JUAN GONZALEZ, CARL EVERETT, MARK TEIXEIRA, or any other regulars in the everyday lineup. However, I expect Buck Showalter to spread the pain around, giving RAFAEL PALMEIRO, HANK BLALOCK (against lefties), and the aforementioned players an occasional day off. Other than Sierra, who isn’t hitting well anyway, keep the quality Ranger hitters in your lineup barring late-breaking news.
Here Comes A Regular
MARK TEIXEIRA started his ninth consecutive game Thursday night. Interestingly, Tex has not started a single game at his putative position of third base during this stretch; he has four starts at first, four in the outfield and one at DH. Though batting only .250 in this nine-game series, he has three homers and 14 RBI. Teixeira is currently owned in 55% of ESPN’s mixed leagues. If you’re lamenting Eric Hinske’s bum hand or floundering with Joe Crede, Adrian Beltre, or David Bell, you may have one last chance to improve your lot in life. Inquire as to Teixeira’s availability in your league today.
Roster Moves, Past and Future
None of the recent roster moves has any fantasy implications except in 20-team, AL-only leagues. By releasing TODD VAN POPPEL, the Rangers sadly but wisely chose to eat the remaining $4.2 million of his ridiculous contract. Van Poppel had a 5.91 ERA in his second term with the Rangers. Texas also optioned recently acquired would-be starter ALAN BENES to AAA. Van Poppel and Benes will be replaced by relievers ROSMAN GARCIA and REYNALDO GARCIA, neither of whom will pitch well enough or in the right situations to offer fantasy value. The Rangers won’t need a fifth starter until June 7, when, perhaps, CHAN HO PARK finally may start another game in the Majors. If Park isn’t ready, VICTOR SANTOS could join the rotation. Santos has a 5.10 career ERA with Detroit and Colorado.
Leg soreness has delayed DOUG GLANVILLE’s return from the Disabled List. He may return by the end of this weekend and should resume duties as the primary center fielder. HERBERT PERRY, whose shoulder was too sore for him to DH Thursday night, may have to revisit the DL. Perry wasn’t playing much anyway, having started only five of 17 possible games. If Perry stays, the likely candidate for dismissal would be RYAN CHRISTENSON, who has batted poorly enough to necessitate CARL EVERETT’s awkward presence in center.
Total Information AwarenessWelcome To The National League
Tuesday night, the Rangers commence Interleague play with series at Atlanta and Montreal (in San Juan), then host the Mets and Marlins. Texas hosts and visits so-called natural rival Houston during the last two weekends in June. The victor of the Texas-Houston series receives the lukewarmly-coveted Silver Boot. I don’t know who manufactures the boot, whether a new boot is produced each year or the if the winning team “rents” it like the Stanley Cup. Regardless, the excitement is palpable. Isn’t it? Sure, why not.
For fantasy purposes, the only games that affect lineups are on the road, where the Rangers must forfeit the DH and test the batting skills of Colby Lewis and his pitching brethren. Unlike many AL clubs, the Rangers rotate the DH among several players, most notably RAFAEL PALMEIRO, JUAN GONZALEZ, and RUBEN SIERRA. Hence, Texas will not will not simply mothball their everyday DH for nine games as Seattle must do with Edgar Martinez. The Rangers’ crowded outfield situation is eased somewhat by the continued absence of DOUG GLANVILLE, who is expected to miss the Atlanta series while continuing his rehab assignment.
For most games this week, Buck Showalter will proffer the defensively challenged outfield of MARK TEIXEIRA, CARL EVERETT, and Gonzalez. And for most games, the infield will consist of the usual quartet of HANK BLALOCK, ALEX RODRIGUEZ, MICHAEL YOUNG, and Palmeiro. If any one player is hurt more than the others by Interleague play, it’s Sierra, who doesn’t hit well enough to supercede the other regulars. However, with the Rangers facing lefties Wednesday and Thursday, Sierra could earn some outfield time while Teixeira takes over for Blalock in one or both games. Showalter also promised to start Sierra for at least one game in San Juan this weekend. Still, Sierra’s owners should seek an alternative for this week.
Showalter claims Palmeiro will play first every day, so Teixeira must rotate between third and outfield. My semi-educated guess is that Tex starts in four of the six games this week. Don’t be surprised to see Everett and Gonzalez get a day off during the week, as both are (as always) nursing minor leg injuries. As for which players start which games, that’s almost impossible to predict. In general, you should keep the Ranger hitters in your lineup with the exception of Sierra.
Park and Perry
CHAN HO PARK offered yet another mediocre start in his tortuous, torturous rehab assignment, allowing four runs and ten baserunners in six innings on Sunday. The Rangers need a fifth starter this Saturday, but they may make Park throw one last time in AAA before his rehab term ends. Park probably return on June 14 against Florida. Candidates for this Saturday include minor-leaguer VICTOR SANTOS, recently signed Milwaukee outcast JAMEY WRIGHT, or current longman R.A. DICKEY. Meanwhile, HERBERT PERRY returned to the DL and may require shoulder surgery. Drop him apace.
Draft Day
With the ninth pick in the amateur draft, the Rangers bucked the new conventional wisdom and selected high school pitcher John Danks of Round Rock High School in Texas. Danks is a 6’2”, 190 pound lefty with a good cut fastball and curve. Should he sign soon, he will join the short-season A-level squad in Spokane. Should he not sign at all, he'll pitch for my alma mater, the University of Texas. He should sign; Hicks isn’t shy with the green.
Everything Must Go!
In my younger days (circa 1978), the Rangers would wait until the All-Star break before collapsing in a morass of bad pitching and untimely hitting. This year, with several expensive free-agents-to-be, they’ve decided to plan ahead by losing seven straight and falling fifteen games behind the torrid Mariners. Keep in mind the non-waiver trading deadline is over seven weeks away, so the Rangers may do nothing at all for a while. But since my inbox runneth over with questions about trade rumors, lets look at the candidates and the fantasy implications therein.
To date, San Francisco and the Yankees have expressed the most interest in UGUETH URBINA. Presumably, Urbina would close in San Francisco and set up Rivera in pinstripes. One rumor has the Giants surrendering Jerome Williams for Urbina. That would be a spectacularly terrible decision on the Giants’ part, and I hope it is true. In mixed leagues, a trade to the Giants would boost Urbina’s value (better team, pitcher’s park). He would become an unperson in AL-only leagues. A trade to the Yankees would eliminate most of his value in any league. Since Urbina was a free agent signing, the Rangers cannot trade him without his permission before June 15. The Rangers’ closer-in-waiting is FRANCISCO CORDERO. JEFF ZIMMERMAN may pitch again this season but probably not as a closer.
CARL EVERETT and JUAN GONZALEZ would improve almost any outfield, but their high salaries and alleged personality issues may scare off some potential suitors. From my perspective, almost all of Everett’s surliness is directed at the media (a sin punishable by eternal bad press). He plays hard and appears to be liked and respected by his teammates. Gonzalez, with his coterie of advisors and hangers-on, can dominate when the mood fits. I know of no specific team asking about either player, but the Rangers certainly will entertain any reasonable offer and pick up a significant amount of either player’s salary to effect a trade. Gonzalez has a no-trade clause but might waive it under the right circumstances.
Other potential trade candidates are pitchers ISMAEL VALDES and JOHN THOMSON and even 1B RAFAEL PALMEIRO, who also has a no-trade clause and probably will stay in Texas. Whatever trades occur will allow HANK BLALOCK and MARK TEIXEIRA to play every day, and recently recalled KEVIN MENCH also will play more often, but probably not often enough or well enough to have value in most mixed leagues.
But, For Now…
Texas traded RUBEN SIERRA to the Yanks for semi-prospect OF MARCUS THAMES. Sierra claimed the Ranger organization “isn’t what it used to be,” conveniently ignoring that he isn’t what he used to be and hasn’t been since about 1992. I assume Sierra will do in the Bronx what he did in Arlington: leach at-bats from more talented teammates. Kevin Mench takes his place but is trapped behind Everett, Gonzalez, Teixeira and DOUG GLANVILLE, who should be activated in time to play Saturday. Mench should assume Sierra’s role as spot outfielder and part-time DH when the road stretch of Interleague play ends.
Teixeira has started sixteen consecutive games but may see a little more bench in the short-term future, as Glanville’s return will push Everett back to an outfield corner. But as Palmeiro is working his way through a sore back and hamstring, Tex could play more often at first, so keep him in your lineup if you ordinarily would. Expect RYAN CHRISTENSON’s tenure as a Ranger to end Saturday.
“Pitchers”George Is Getting Upset!
UGUETH URBINA should be wearing a different uniform by the end of the month, perhaps as early as this Sunday, the first day free-agent signees may be traded without their consent. His most likely new employer is the Yankees, who are 14-24 since May 2. Their bullpen isn’t terrible – its 4.24 ERA is eighth in the AL – but “not terrible” won’t suffice in the Bronx. Other candidates include San Francisco, Boston and St. Louis, though Jason Isringhausen’s return puts them down on the list.
So You Own Urbina
Well, you’re in a dilly of a pickle. A trade to New York would obliterate most of Urbina’s value in any fantasy league. In AL-only leagues, a trade to the National League would obliterate him completely. Though a good pitcher, Urbina’s non-save stats don’t measure up to premiere setup men like Dotel, Rhodes and Mota. Some owners are still paying high for him (e.g., Mark Mulder, Lance Berkman, Sammy Sosa), so try to move him now, and I mean NOW. Sure, Urbina could end up closing in San Francisco, or Rivera could get hurt again, but the potential reward in holding Urbina doesn’t justify the risk.
So You Need A Closer
FRANCISCO CORDERO will inherit the closer role from Urbina. Cordero saved ten games last year from mid-June onward despite missing three weeks on the DL. Statistically, Cordero is reminiscent of Rocker circa 1998 or Mitch Williams, walking far too many batters but striking more than one per inning and not allowing many hits. Former closer JEFF ZIMMERMAN, out since elbow surgery in 2002, is progressing quickly and may return by late July or early August. Still, I don’t expect the Rangers to place him in such a prominent position immediately upon his return. So, Urbina owners or others needing saves can help themselves by dropping a laggard for Cordero, who is owned in fewer than 40% of ESPN’s mixed leagues as of Thursday.
Miscellaneous Owwies
JUAN GONZALEZ has earned the dreaded tag “day to day,” having missed three games with a sore elbow. If he misses Friday night, consider benching him until he reappears in the lineup. ALEX RODRIGUEZ also recently missed two games with a bruised knee but is fine now and playing every game. RAFAEL PALMEIRO is fighting a sore back and hamstring but should still make his way into the lineup as DH. For a third consecutive year, Palmeiro has bristled at sharing time at first (with Pena in 2001, Hafner last year, and Teixeira now). But, for the first time, he’s hitting demonstrably worse as a DH, batting just .1